In February, the CPI index in the United States surged, indicating that inflation has a certain stickiness, dimming the prospects for the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates.  

The price of gold fell by nearly 30 US dollars, a drop of more than 1%; the US government raised its forecast for crude oil production growth in 2024 and released economic data that was bearish for the market, but continued geopolitical tensions limited the decline in oil prices, which only slightly fell. 

Gold >> 

On Tuesday, the CPI index in the United States surged in February, indicating that inflation has a certain stickiness, casting doubt on the prospect of the Federal Reserve quickly cutting interest rates.  

The price of gold retraced nearly 30 US dollars, with spot gold plummeting significantly, ultimately closing down by 1.12% at USD 2158.27 per ounce; COMEX gold futures fell by 1.13%, closing at USD 2163.9 per ounce. 

Despite the consecutive rise in inflation readings announced by the US Department of Labor on Tuesday for the second month, the composition of the report still aligns with the trend of slowing inflation. 

Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have stated that they are not in a hurry to begin lowering borrowing costs. The persistently high cost of living was one of the key issues in the November 5th US presidential election.  

With the rise in gasoline and housing costs, the sharp increase in US consumer prices in February indicates that inflation has a certain stickiness, further reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before June. 

Yesterday, gold faced pressure at the 2182 level due to the bearish impact of CPI data, experiencing a pullback and oscillation below this level before closing below the bottom, with the daily candlestick forming a bearish engulfing pattern.  

Overall, prices underwent a correction on the daily chart after reaching the high point of 2195 last Friday following the non-farm payroll data release. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2175-2180. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2140-2145. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Tuesday, the US government revised upwards its forecast for crude oil production growth in 2024 and released economic data that was bearish for the market.  

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions limited the decline in oil prices. WTI crude oil eventually closed down by 0.14% at USD 78.10 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.16% to USD 82.87 per barrel. 

OPEC maintained its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, and further raised its economic growth expectations for this year, stating that there is still room for further improvement.  

China’s crude oil imports in the first two months of this year increased compared to the same period in 2023 but remained weaker than in previous months, continuing the trend of reduced purchasing volume.

Increased refining activity in the United States could tighten global crude oil supply, which may help limit the decline in oil prices. 

Yesterday, oil prices technically maintained a narrow consolidation above the 77.3 level, with slight upward movements during the Asian and European sessions, breaking through the 78.6 level before retreating.  

During the US session, prices quickly dipped and stabilized around the 77.3 level, with some rebounding. In the early hours, there was a second attempt to break through the 78.7 level before retreating and closing with oscillations. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 79.5-80.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 76.5-77.0. 

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