1. Forex Market Insight
The ADP Research Institute released data last night showing that U.S. business employment increased by 374,000 last month, which was below the estimate of all economists surveyed. The revised figure for July was an increase of 326,000. The weaker-than-expected increase in hiring suggests companies are still having trouble attracting job seekers to fill the record number of openings.
At the same time, if consumer spending in service industries such as dining out drops significantly, the rampant Delta variant strain may bring more resistance to hiring. As a result, the euro pulled up sharply.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Today, the euro mainly focuses on the 1.1820-line. If the euro runs stably above the 1.1820-line, keep the idea of maintaining the bullish trend. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the 1.1853 and 1.1880 positions. If the euro’s strength drops below the 1.1820-line, it will open up a greater downside potential. At that time, pay attention to the support strength of the two positions at 1.1795 and 1.1753.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The British pound was weaker yesterday, relative to the euro, due to the local pandemic situation.
The latest data from the British government showed that there were 207 new deaths from the Coronavirus on Wednesday, 1st September 2021, the most since 9th March 2021.
As of 31st August 2021, a total of 7,598 new Coronavirus infected patients were hospitalized, up from 6,929 a week earlier. It stands as the highest level since 12th March 2021. The UK also reported 35,693 new cases, which is higher than the 7-day rolling average. Meanwhile, 78.9% of people over the age of 16 have received two doses of the vaccine.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
The pound is paying attention to the 1.3798-line today. If the pound’s strength breaks through the 1.3798-line, it will open up a greater upside potential and focus on the suppression of the 1.3830-line at that time. If the pound is under pressure from the 1.3798-line, then focus on the middle track of the Bollinger band. When it breaks below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, it will open up a greater downside potential. On the lower end, pay attention to the 1.3721-line of support.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices fell into a narrow range yesterday as investors largely ignored a series of U.S. economic data to focus on a key employment report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its quantitative easing (QE) program.
Gold prices largely follow the trend of the U.S. dollar. After the ADP National Employment Report showed that U.S. private jobs rose much lesser than expected in August, the U.S. dollar retreated. However, subsequent data showed an increase in manufacturing activity and the dollar regained some of its lost ground.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
The price of gold is still at a high and weak sideways drift, forming a shock trend from 1808 to 1819. Today, we will pay attention to the breakthrough direction of this interval. If it breaks through the 1819-line, it will open up a greater upside potential. At that time, we will pay attention to the suppression of the 1831-line. If it falls below the 1808-line, it will open up a greater downside potential. At that time, pay attention to the support of the 1798 and 1790 positions.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
OPEC+ agreed yesterday to stick to its current policy of gradually increasing oil production, despite an upward revision of its demand forecast for 2022 and continued pressure from the U.S. to boost output more quickly.
Last night’s decision means OPEC+ will add another 400,000 bpd of crude oil to the market in October, after OPEC had released an extra 400,000 bpd in September. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 4th October.
OPEC+ said in a statement that while the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic continues to create some uncertainty, market fundamentals have strengthened. As the recovery accelerates, oil inventories in OECD countries continue to fall again, raising expectations that the market is likely to outstrip demand even with increased production in the future.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Yesterday, oil prices rebounded quickly after testing the 66.83-line as expected. Today, we are still paying attention to the 66.83-line. As long as the oil price runs stably above the 66.83-line, it will maintain its bullish trend. At that time, we will pay attention to the suppression of the 68.57 and 69.75 positions in turn. Once the strength of oil price drops below the 66.83-line, it could possibly open up a greater downside potential.
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