EUR/USD closed up 0.18% on Thursday, 11th August 2022, at 1.0317. The risk of economic contraction continues and the euro is under pressure due to political instability in Italy. This winter, with inflation peaking, the eurozone will likely see a ...
1. Forex Market Insight
EUR/USD closed up 0.42% on Thursday, 30th June 2022, reversing losses caused by rising euro zone recession fears and the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine.
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates in July for the first time in 10 years in an attempt to push back rapidly climbing inflation.
Yet, economists are divided on the magnitude of the rate hike.
The market is concerned about the June inflation data in the euro zone to be released at 17:00 GMT on 1st July, in order to get a better idea of how aggressive the ECB will be in raising interest rates.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
We focus on the 1.0529-line today. If EUR runs steadily below the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0357 and 1.0184. If the strength of EUR breaks above the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0642 and 1.0697.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2022, in line with economists’ expectations, and grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first quarter.
However, soaring inflation and low consumer confidence have led economists to downgrade their expectations for the UK’s economic performance for the rest of the year.
The Bank of England warned in May that a recession could sweep through the UK by the end of the year.
In fact, UK economic activity is expected to contract by 0.4% in the second quarter.
However, with the recovery from the impact of the bank vacation in the previous quarter, we should return to 0.3% year-on-year growth in the third quarter.
To celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Queen’s accession to the throne, the British government added extra bank holidays in June, which naturally led to a slowdown in economic growth.
Economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink by a smaller 0.1%.
A “technical recession” is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, but it is clear that the economy is expected to slow down significantly.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2106-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2106-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2056 and 1.1970. If GBP runs above the 1.2106-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2243 and 1.2301.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Spot gold fluctuated slightly, and the central banks of major European and American economies are preparing to adopt aggressive strategies to deal with runaway inflation.
Fed Chairman Powell’s speech was also very hawkish, which helped the dollar rise to a nearly two-week high, which put gold prices under pressure.
However, the market is also concerned about the risk of recession, especially in the United States.
Coupled with the NATO summit heightening market concerns about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, there is still some safe-haven buying to provide support for gold prices.
While technically bearish signals for gold prices have strengthened slightly, there are still multiple supports below, and we still need to beware of the possibility of bottoming out or a low-level shock.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1807-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1807-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1793 and 1786 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1807-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1816 and 1832.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Brent crude for September delivery fell 3% to settle at $109.03 a barrel.
The August contract, which expires on Thursday, fell 1.3% to settle at $114.81 a barrel.
OPEC+ completed the recovery of production cut during the epidemic and there were signs that the US economy was performing weaker than expected, dragging down oil prices.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices focus on the 102.52-line today. If the oil price runs above the 102.52-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 105.01 and 107.52. If the oil price runs below the 102.52-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 99.50 and 97.33.
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