1. Forex Market Insight
Recently, two European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers said that there is still some room for Eurozone interest rates to rise, pushing up market expectations for peak ECB rates.
But this hardly boosted the euro, the euro closed 0.09% against the dollar on Monday, 20th February 2023 at 1.0683.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 1.0697 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0697 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0642 and 1.0529. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0697 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0776 and 1.0802.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The pound closes nearly flat against the dollar on Monday,20th February 2023, at 1.2038. The composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) to be released on Tuesday will give more clues about the state of the British economy.
The average housing in the U.K. rose in February compared to the previous month, the smallest increase on record for the month. Originally, there is usually a sharp seasonal increase in prices in February every year.
The fact that asking prices were flat during the month, rather than falling, could be a positive sign for the housing market, suggesting a more modest landing than many analysts had predicted.
The market is looking forward to the Bank of England’s March policy meeting, where there is now an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike, and the Bank has raised rates ten times in a row since the end of 2021, with the target rate currently at 4%.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.1966-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.1966-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1902 and 1.1762. If GBP runs above the 1.1966-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2117 and 1.2261.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices oscillated in a narrow range on Monday, 20th February 2023, with light trading, as the market focused on upcoming U.S. economic data to find clues about the Fed’s path of interest rate hikes.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1832-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1832-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1820 and 1808 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1832-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1847 and 1868.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, 20th February 2023, driven by optimism over Chinese demand, continued production cuts by major oil producers and Russia’s plans to rein in supply.
Trading was subdued as the U.S. market coincided with the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, equivalent to about 5 percent of its total output, after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products.
OPEC+, made up of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and oil-producing countries such as Russia, agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Feb. 19 report that future oil supply shortages could push oil prices toward $100 a barrel by the end of this year.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices today focus on 77.31 – line, if oil prices run at 77.31 – line above, then pay attention to 78.14 and 78.93 two positions of suppression strength; if oil prices run at 77.31 – line below, then pay attention to 76 and 75 two positions of support strength.
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