TOKYO, Nov 25 (Reuters) – Japan’s ruling party is discussing whether to ease military equipment export rules, in part because without a change Britain would not be able to sell any jet fighters it builds with Japan, former defence min ...
1. Forex Market Insight
The euro fell across the board yesterday, with EUR/USD down 0.5% at 1.0509.
This comes after it fell below the key $1.05 level for the third time this week.
As lower-than-expected German and French Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) showed, the eurozone economy is struggling to get on track, which has prompted traders to reduce their bets on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) move to raise interest rates sharply.
Rising prices in the euro zone meant that demand for manufactured goods fell in June at the fastest pace since the height of the coronavirus pandemic in May 2020.
The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell from 54.6 to a near two-year low of 52.0.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
We focus on the 1.0529-line today. If EUR runs steadily below the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0357 and 1.0184. If the strength of EUR breaks above the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0642 and 1.0697.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Consumer price inflation in the U.K. hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in May, the latest figure to show that consumer prices are hotter than expected.
GBP initially fell nearly 1% to a near one-week low of $1.2162 before recovering most of its losses.
In addition to the U.S. dollar index in the European Central Bank interest rate hike is expected to heat up and the market’s risk aversion to cool the combined pressure of the weakening of the pound constituted some support.
The hawkish remarks made by the Bank of England’s chief economist to heat up the Bank of England’s interest rate hike expectations is also an important factor supporting the currency.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2243-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2243-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2106 and 1.2056. If GBP runs above the 1.2243-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2301 and 1.2478.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Spot gold fluctuated slightly, and is currently trading around $1,825.
Lingering market fears of a U.S. recession put the dollar under slight pressure and provided some support to gold prices.
This puts pressure on the dollar and provides support to gold prices.
But overnight Powell doubled down on his emphasis that the Fed will tighten policy to curb inflation, and European Bank officials reinforced expectations for a rate hike.
Gold is under pressure from the Fed and most central banks around the world to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Short-term gold prices are still biased to oscillate to the downside and need to beware of the risk of a downward break.
Also, the support of bargain hunting also requires a little attention.
There is relatively little data in this session, so keep an eye on the performance of the U.S. housing market and the speeches of the Fed officials.
It is also important to keep an eye on news related to the geopolitical situation, especially the change in market expectations for next week’s G7 meeting and NATO summit.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1832-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1832-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1816 and 1812 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1832-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1847 and 1866.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
U.S. oil futures fell $1.92 to close at $104.27 per barrel.
Oil prices have fallen more than 10% in the past week.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before a House committee heightened market fears of an impending recession, which in turn hurt demand and once again put oil prices under pressure.
(Crude Oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices focus on the 105.01-line today. If the oil price runs above the 105.01-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 107.52 and 109.62. If the oil price runs below the 105.01-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 102.52 and 99.50.
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