1. Forex Market Insight
EUR/USD fell nearly 1% on Tuesday, 3rd August 2022, after JPMorgan Chase changed its previous expectation that the European Central Bank would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and 25 basis points in October, respectively.
It is now thought that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise rates again by 50 basis points in September and then pause in October, as by then it may become clear that the eurozone economy is heading for a full-blown contraction.
In addition, the ECB is expected to raise its inflation expectations significantly at its next meeting, but is unlikely to change its growth expectations significantly as it does not have enough information to change its growth expectations other than a gas supply shock.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
We focus on the 1.0277-line today. If EUR runs steadily below the 1.0277-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0190 and 1.0116. If the strength of EUR breaks above the 1.0277-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0357 and 1.0529.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
GBP/USD fell 0.73%, the Bank of England (BoE) will release its interest rate resolution on Thursday, the pound will move with a bit of a wait-and-see attitude before the Bank of England announces interest rates on Thursday, 4th August 2022.
Interest rate expectations suggest that the market is now fully digesting the possibility of a 50 basis point rate rise, however, there is some risk of a pullback in the hawkish pricing of the market that cannot be ignored, which could trigger some weakness in the pound.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2301-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2301-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2106 and 1.2056. If GBP runs above the 1.2301-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2478 and 1.2668.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices touched about a one-month high on Tuesday, 2nd August 2022, as expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes and a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy greatly supported gold.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are another factor supporting gold.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1768-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1768-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1760 and 1751 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1768-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1786 and 1793.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Crude oil edged up less than 1% on Tuesday, 2nd August 2022, with this week’s meeting of OPEC+ producers likely not to lead to further increases in crude supplies amid concerns that the global recession could limit energy demand.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API).
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices focus on the 93.57-line today. If the oil price runs above the 93.57-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 95.05 and 97.33. If the oil price runs below the 93.57-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 91.54 and 90.44.
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