1. Forex Market Insight
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Monday 28th November 2022 that inflation in the euro zone has not yet peaked and is likely to be higher than currently expected, hinting at a series of interest rate hikes in the future. The euro fell 0.15% against the dollar to $1.0324.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 1.0440 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0440 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0275 and 1.0088. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0440 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0529 and 1.0586.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Catherine L. Mann, an external member of the UK Monetary Policy Committee, said inflation has “increasingly penetrated” the UK economy and the Bank of England must make a strong response. She said the BoE needs to raise interest rates further, but she did not specify whether she would vote for a 50 basis point hike in December, or another 75 basis points.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.1941-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.1941-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1762 and 1.1641. If GBP runs above the 1.1941-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2147 and 1.2276.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices rose 1% Tuesday 29th November 2022, helped by a retreat in the dollar and hopes for a lower rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the future. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,751.21 an ounce.
The federal funds rate futures market now expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points at its December policy meeting with a 63.5% probability and another 50 basis point hike in February with an 88% probability.
The market will be watching Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at a Brookings Institution event on Wednesday 30th November 2022, which could provide more clarity on the Fed’s policy stance.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1768-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1768-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1747 and 1727 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1768-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1783 and 1793.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices rose Tuesday 29th November 2022 as epidemic fears eased, but concerns about OPEC+ keeping production unchanged at an upcoming meeting limited gains. A weaker dollar also helped boost oil prices.
The dollar usually moves in the opposite direction of oil prices. The dollar index fell to 106.65 from a 20-year high as investors expect the Federal Reserve to peak interest rates early next year as inflationary pressures are expected to ease.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices focus on the 77.54 line today. If the oil price runs above the 77.54 -line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 79.09 and 81.12. If the oil price runs below the 77.54 -line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 76.07 and 75.04.
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