EUR/USD closed up 0.18% on Thursday, 11th August 2022, at 1.0317. The risk of economic contraction continues and the euro is under pressure due to political instability in Italy. This winter, with inflation peaking, the eurozone will likely see a ...
1. Forex Market Insight
The euro fell three straight against the dollar last week. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi offered to resign, and the exchange rate once fell to a new low of 0.9951 since early December 2002, but then rejected by the country’s president.
Europe is grappling with new problems and eurozone policymakers need to make painful and economically costly choices.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
We focus on the 1.0116-line today. If EUR runs steadily below the 1.0116-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 0.9999 and 0.9938. If the strength of EUR breaks above the 1.0116-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0184 and 1.0357.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The pound lost three straight against the dollar last week, hitting a new low of 1.1759 since late March 2020.
Markets are also concerned about the outlook for the UK economy, fearing that growth is stagnant and that inflation may eventually continue to be higher than elsewhere.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.1916-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.1916-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1853 and 1.1820. If GBP runs above the 1.1916-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1970 and 1.2005.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Spot gold fell more than 2% last week, with gold prices falling for the fifth consecutive week.
The intraday refreshed a new low to $1,697.53 since the week of 13th Aug, 2021.
The year-on-year increase in U.S. inflation hit a more than 40-year high of 9.1%, and expectations of faster interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve boosted the U.S. dollar significantly, depressing the overall movement of gold prices last week.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1701-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1701-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1690 and 1680 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1701-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1722 and 1742.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices maintained a downward swing last week.
In the United States, the release of June CPI data unexpectedly exceeded expectations by a large margin, making the market expectations of a sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve rise, which is not conducive to oil prices.
In addition, US President Biden opened a trip to the Middle East last week, hoping to urge Middle Eastern countries to increase production, which also put heavy pressure on oil prices.
However, three major crude oil reports released last week concluded that supply remains limited in the current market and market institutions are bullish on the long-term trend of crude oil.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices focus on the 95.05-line today. If the oil price runs above the 95.05-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 97.33 and 99.50. If the oil price runs below the 95.05-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 93.57 and 91.54.
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