1. Forex Market Insight
On Monday, 18th October 2022, euro gained 1.19% against the greenback to $0.9838. However, the risk of recession remains a headwind for the upside of the exchange rate.
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the ECB can’t exclude the possibility of a technical recession hitting the euro area. The ECB doesn’t target forex rate, but considers it.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 0.9810 line today. If the EUR runs below the 0.9810 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 0.9770 and 0.9669. If the strength of EUR rise over the 0.9810 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 0.9852 and 0.9909.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The pound rebounded against the dollar on Monday, 18th October 2022 but remain limited, closing up 1.63% at 1.1358.
Bank of England (BoE) rate hike, political turmoil and recession are the downsides to the pound.
Traders reduced their bets on the BoE’s interest rate hike, and expected that the BoE’s key interest rate will reach a peak of 5.36% by May next year.
Britain’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, said in a statement yesterday, 18th October 2022, that he is scrapping “almost all” the tax cuts announced by the government in September this year.
This measurement is to deliver long-term economic stability and enhance public confidence towards the government’s fiscal policy.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.1378-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.1378 -line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1250 and 1.1183. If GBP runs above the 1.1378 -line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1421 and 1.1501.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices on Monday , 18th October 2022 rose more than 1% after falling in the previous two sessions as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields faltered, although risks from looming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes persisted.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1642-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1642-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1627 and 1616 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1642-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1671 and 1682.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices held steady on Monday, 18th October 2022 in choppy trading as fears that high inflation and energy costs could drag the global economy into recession.
Brent crude futures were down 0.01%, to US$91.62 a barrel, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. crude oil futures settled 0.2% lower at $85.46 a barrel, after a 7.6% decline last week.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices focus on the 84.02-line today. If the oil price runs above the 84.02-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 85.72 and 88.08. If the oil price runs below the 84.02-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 82.41 and 81.07.
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