1. Forex Market Insight
The euro was up 0.4% against the dollar in late New York trading at $1.0719, after hitting a one-month low of $1.0656 in Asian session trading.
The dollar slipped in oscillating trading on Monday 13th February 2023, after last week’s surge, mainly because the market was consolidating positions ahead of Tuesday’s release of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data.
According to a Reuters survey, the market expects Tuesday’s data release to show that the overall CPI rose 0.5% in January from a year earlier and fell 0.1% in December, while the core CPI rise will rise to 0.4% from 0.3% last month. The data is of considerable importance as a reference for expectations of peak dollar interest rates.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 1.0729 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0729 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0642 and 1.0529. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0729 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0776 and 1.0802.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
On Monday, 13th February 2023, the pound rose 0.6% against the dollar to $1.2134. The week is packed with economic data, and markets will be looking at inflation data from the U.K. and the U.S. to make bets on the pace of further interest rate hikes.
The market expects U.K. inflation to likely slow further to 10.2% in January from 10.5% in December, after appearing to peak at 11.1% in October.
The data will be released on Wednesday. Outsiders believe this will strengthen the case for the Bank of England to slow the pace of interest rate hikes.
Earlier in February, the Bank of England abandoned the argument that it was “taking strong action” to curb inflation, which the market took as a signal that the Bank of England may be coming to the end of the rate hike cycle.
But there is also another voice that the Bank of England to stop the pace of interest rate hikes is unfounded. That’s because BoE rate-setters, including Mann and Haskell, said after the meeting that they favored further rate hikes.
Therefore, this week’s inflation data from both the U.K. and U.S. countries will cause greater volatility in the foreign exchange market.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2010-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2010-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.902 and 1.782. If GBP runs above the 1.2010-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2111 and 1.2222.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices fell on Monday, 13th February 2023, as markets prepared for the highly anticipated U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s strategy for raising interest rates.
Fed governor Jerome Bauman said the Fed will need to continue to raise interest rates to bring them to a high enough level to bring inflation back down.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1866-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1866-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1847 and 1832 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1866-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1880 and 1892.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices climbed Monday, 13th February 2023, rebounding from earlier losses, as investors weighed Russia’s crude production cut plans against short-term demand concerns ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data.
Oil prices touched a two-week high on Friday after Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, said it would cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, equivalent to about 5% of the country’s total output, in retaliation for Western-imposed restrictions on its oil and oil product exports.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices focus on the 78.93 – line today. If the oil price runs above the 78.93 -line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 80.13 and 8131.28. If the oil price runs below the 78.83 -line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 78.14 and 77.31.
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