1. Forex Market Insight
The current trend in the currency market shows that the market digested the possibility of a Fed rate hike in June next year, and then again in November.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, there is a 50% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike by July 2022. The market believes that the key interest rate will be raised in the second half of next year, while the dollar will still be “buy low” in the short term. The euro was essentially flat against the dollar, and fell by 0.5% to 1.1264 during the day.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Today, pay attention to the 1.1401-line. If the euro runs stably below the 1.1401-line, keep the bearish trend. Below, pay attention to the support at 1.1278 and 1.1250. If the strength of the euro breaks through the 1.1401-line, it will open up a further upside. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the two positions at 1.1501 and 1.1535.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
GBPUSD rose by 0.48% to 1.3496 at one point, before falling back to 1.3487 in late trading. If the economic activity data shows that economic momentum is picking up, with retail sales data due out on Friday, GBPUSD will likely see a rally by the end of the month as the market begins to fully digest the Bank of England’s rate hike expectations.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
The pound today is mainly focused on the 1.3522-line. If the pound runs below the 1.3522-line, then pay attention to the support at the 1.3302 and 1.3186 positions in turn. If the pound breaks through the 1.3522-line, pay attention to the suppression at the 1.3574 and 1.3669 positions.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
The underlying support for gold is still the inflationary pressures that continue to be seen in the market. If Fed policymakers hint in the near term that they may accelerate tapering of asset purchases to fight inflation, or if the market believes that interest rates will rise sooner than expected, gold prices could come under “slight pressure”.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold is still paying attention to the 1869-line today. If the price of gold runs stably below the 1869-line, it will still maintain the bearish trend. At that time, pay attention to the support of the 1844 and 1831 positions. If the gold price breaks the 1869-line, it will open up a further upside. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the 1880-line.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices plunged yesterday, with the U.S. oil plunging by 3.5% to a new low of $76.93 per barrel since Nov. 7, with the oil settlement price falling to its lowest level since early October, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of an impending supply glut and an increase in the Covid-19 cases in Europe exacerbating downside risks to the demand recovery.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Today, oil prices are paying attention to the 76.89-line. If the oil price runs above the 76.89-line, the pressure at 78.41 and 80 will be followed in turn. If the oil price drops below 76.89, a further downside space will be opened. At that time, pay attention to the strength of the two positions at 75.69 and 75.04.
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