1. Forex Market Insight
Economic data released in the U.S. remained strong, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising 0.6% in January, the largest gain since June 2022, and 0.2% in December.
In the 12 months to January, the PCE price index surged 5.4%, after rising 5.3% in December. This is the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation indicator.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, jumped 1.8% in January, the largest increase since March 2021, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.
In addition, U.S. new home sales rose 7.2% in January, the highest level since March 2022. December sales were revised upward to 625,000 from 616,000.
Strong U.S. data completely turned the market around in February. Interest rate assets and stocks sold off and the dollar rose. The U.S. economy appears to be re-accelerating, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates further, and the market’s original hope for an early Fed turn seems to have fallen flat.
The U.S. dollar continues to lead the major economies in interest rates, causing the eurozone currency, which is also starting to perform well, to be squeezed and turned into a shock to the downside.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 1.0529 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0529 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0485 and 1.0440. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0529 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0613 and 1.0655.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The British pound rallied after British Prime Minister Sonaq announced a new deal with the EU on post-Brexit trade rules, saying it would pave the way for writing a new chapter in London’s relationship with the EU.
The pound closed up 1.04% against the dollar, its biggest one-day gain in nearly six weeks, to close at $1.2062.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2010-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2010-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1902 and 1.1762. If GBP runs above the 1.2010-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2117 and 1.2261.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices hit an eight-week low last week, weighed down by a climb in the dollar and U.S. bond yields as the market braced for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.
U.S. inflation accelerated and consumer spending rebounded sharply by 1.8% in January, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1820-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1820-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1808 and 1793 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1820-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1832 and 1845.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices fell about 1% on Monday as strong U.S. economic data prepared investors for continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation, which could weaken economic growth and oil demand.
Oil is also under pressure after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last week that U.S. crude inventories rose to their highest level since May 2021.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices today focus on 76.89- line, if oil prices run at 76.89 – line above, then pay attention to 78.14 and 78.93 two positions of suppression strength; if oil prices run at 76.89 – line below, then pay attention to 75.04 and 73.52 two positions of support strength.
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, DOO Prime does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. DOO Prime does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly, from the use of this document. The material contained in this document is provided solely for general information and educational purposes and is not and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, securities, futures, options, bonds or any other relevant financial instruments or investments. Nothing in this document should be taken as making any recommendations or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of financial instruments, any related products or any other products, securities or investments. Trading involves risk and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to the report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their own financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.