1. Forex Market Insight     

EUR/USD  

The euro fell for a second straight week against the dollar, hitting an intraday low since Jan. 9 at 1.0667.  

The currency had previously received an additional boost as markets braced for the possibility that the Fed would stop raising rates ahead of the ECB and expected the Fed to cut rates earlier than the ECB as well.  

However, strong U.S. employment data made the market expect the Fed to have room for further rate hikes, pushing the premium to expand last week and causing the euro to retreat. 

Technical Analysis：  

(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)

We focus on the 1.0729 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0729 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0642 and 1.0529. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0729 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0776 and 1.0802.  

GBP Intraday Trend Analysis  

Fundamental Analysis：   

The pound rose nearly 0.5% against the dollar, recovering from a fresh low of 1.1960 set this week since Jan. 6.  

Zero growth in U.K. GDP in the fourth quarter was in line with expectations, meaning the U.K. avoided falling into a technical recession and better risk sentiment limited the pound’s decline.  

The Bank of England hinted last week that it was close to suspending the current cycle of interest rate hikes.  

In fact, the Bank of England removed the wording “will respond strongly if necessary”. In addition, Governor Bailey said that inflation will fall faster in the second half of 2023.  

The Bank of England also believes that the recession is shorter and shallower than its gloomy forecast in November, which was based on a sharp rise in energy prices.  

The U.K. economy is now expected to contract by nearly 1% over the next five quarters, rather than 2.9% over the next eight quarters. 

Technical Analysis： 

(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)

GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2010-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2010-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.902 and 1.782. If GBP runs above the 1.2010-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2111 and 1.2222. 

2. Precious Metals Market Insight 

Gold

Fundamental Analysis:   

Gold edged up Friday, 11^th February 2023 as markets await next week’s U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.  

While fears of a global recession linger, a strong rally in global markets suggests optimism is returning, which could moderate the Fed’s rate hike cycle. 

Technical Analysis：   

(Gold 1-hour Chart) 

Gold pays attention to the 1866-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1866-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1847 and 1832 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1866-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1880 and 1892.     

3. Commodities Market Insight   

WTI Crude Oil   

Fundamental Analysis:   

Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday, 11^th February 2023, and more than 8% on a weekly basis as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month after the West imposed price caps on Russian crude and fuel.  

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Friday the country will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, equivalent to about 5 percent of total output.  

The decision to cut production suggests the price cap on its oil products has had some impact at a time when Russia is struggling to cope with various restrictions imposed by the West to stifle its oil revenues. 

Technical Analysis：

(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart) 

Oil prices focus on the 78.93 – line today. If the oil price runs above the 78.93 -line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 80.13 and 8131.28. If the oil price runs below the 78.83 -line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 78.14 and 77.31.  



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