Gold maintains its strength as bets on rate cuts intensify, remaining near historically high levels after last week’s record-breaking surge. The market is awaiting US CPI data, which may provide further clarity on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.  

Meanwhile, reduced crude oil exports due to OPEC and Russia’s production cuts have slowed down, but data indicates weak demand in some countries, keeping oil prices relatively stable. 

Gold >>  

On Monday, gold maintained its strength as bets on rate cuts intensified, remaining near historically high levels after last week’s record-breaking surge. The market is awaiting US CPI data, which may provide further clarity on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.  

Spot gold oscillated upward, making multiple attempts to break through the USD 2185 resistance level during the session but ultimately closed up by 0.16%, at USD 2182.72 per ounce; COMEX gold futures rose by 0.18%, at USD 2182.50 per ounce. 

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February will be released on Tuesday this week. It is expected that the CPI in the US for February will increase by 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month, remaining unchanged year-on-year at 3.1%.  

Core CPI is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month and from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year. Powell noted that the Fed will eventually begin to ease policy, but emphasized that the central bank still relies on data.  

Low interest rates support the rise in gold prices as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold. Central bank buying also provides support for gold, with physical gold demand expected to remain relatively strong in several countries this year. 

Yesterday, on the technical side, gold quickly surged in the Asian session but faced pressure near the USD 2188 level and entered into a volatile consolidation phase.  

In the afternoon, it further dropped below USD 2180 and traded sideways, and in the evening US session, it briefly rebounded but faced resistance near the USD 2185 level, quickly retreating to continue the consolidation at the close. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2195-2200. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2170-2165. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Monday, reduced crude oil exports due to production cuts by OPEC and Russia led to a slowdown, but data indicates weak demand in some countries, keeping oil prices relatively stable.  

WTI crude oil saw a V-shaped reversal in the US session, eventually closing up by 0.36% at USD 78.21 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up by 0.61% at USD 83 per barrel. 

In February this year, the IEA forecasted a demand increase of 1.22 million barrels per day for 2024, while OPEC, in its February report, projected a demand increase of 2.25 million barrels per day, representing a difference of about 1% of world demand.  

US inflation data will be released on Tuesday, so the dollar is expected to have a highly volatile week, which will also affect the prices of commodities priced in dollars. 

On the technical side, crude oil saw a rebound after early suppression, with bullish bottom exploration and recovery leading to a positive close.  

Prices in the Asian and European sessions faced pressure near the USD 78.30 level, quickly falling, but during the late US session, they continued to decline, breaking through the USD 77 level and stabilizing near USD 76.8 before rebounding.  

In the early hours, oil prices experienced a deep V-shaped rebound, returning above the USD 78 level, closing with a bottom exploration and recovery, showing small gains in a volatile session. Overall, prices remained supported below the USD 77 level, rebounding as expected. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 78.5-79.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 76.5-76.0. 

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