Due to reduced geopolitical risks and a stronger US dollar, gold prices edged slightly lower but stabilized above the 2300 level. Investors are closely watching US economic data to be released later this week, which could provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking path.  

Concerns over the Middle East conflict have eased, leading to a slowdown in US business activity. However, a decrease in US crude oil inventories has provided support for oil prices, which have seen a slight decline. 

Gold >>  

On Wednesday, spot gold maintained volatility, reaching a high of USD 2337 before ultimately closing down by 0.25% at USD 2315.70 per ounce. Investors are closely watching US economic data to be released later this week, which could provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking path. 

Affected by reduced geopolitical risks and a stronger US dollar, gold prices experienced a significant retreat from recent highs. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, maintained a hawkish stance on interest rates, adding pressure to gold prices.  

As expectations for a Fed rate cut shifted to a later timetable, market sentiment changed. The key economic focus this week will be on the US GDP data on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday, as these will influence the Fed’s monetary policy decision.  

The market expects the core PCE price index for March to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year. Yesterday, gold stabilized around the USD 2311 level amid volatile trading, briefly rising above the USD 2337 resistance level before retreating and closing with oscillations. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2335-2340. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2300-2306. 

WTI Crude Oil >>   

On Wednesday, concerns over the Middle East conflict eased, leading to a slowdown in US business activity. WTI crude oil maintained its downward trend, but an unexpected decrease in US crude oil inventories provided some support to oil prices.  

WTI crude oil ultimately closed down by 0.69% at USD 82.75 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.38% to USD 88.05 per barrel.  

Data from the International Energy Agency (EIA) showed that for the week ending April 19, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, contrary to analysts’ expectations of an increase of 825,000 barrels.  

On Tuesday, the IEA forecasted robust growth in electric vehicle sales for 2024, which continues to weaken petroleum demand. The IEA added that the key to future growth in electric vehicles would depend on consumers’ affordability and the development of charging infrastructure. 

Yesterday, oil prices experienced slight upward pressure but were capped at the USD 83.6 level, leading to a retracement and oscillations. The daily candlestick closed with a small bearish adjustment, indicating overall downward pressure below the 10-day moving average. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 84.5-85.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 82.0-81.5. 

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