The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate meeting proceeded as scheduled, maintaining the status quo. The market’s main focus, the dot plot, still maintains the expectation of three interest rate cuts within the year, rather than decreasing as feared.  

This buoyed spot gold prices, which surged significantly, briefly breaking through the USD 2200 mark to hit a historic high. However, ongoing demand concerns continued to weigh on oil prices, halting their two consecutive rises and causing them to retreat from their five-month highs, with intra-day declines exceeding 1% across the board. 

Gold >> 

On Wednesday, after the release of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, bets on rate cuts heated up again, causing the US dollar index to weaken.  

Spot gold prices surged significantly, briefly breaking through the USD 2200 mark, ultimately closing up 1.32% at USD 2185.80 per ounce. COMEX April gold futures closed up 0.06% at USD 2161 per ounce. In early Asian trading on Thursday, spot gold continued its overnight rally, reaching a fresh historical high of USD 2222.65 per ounce. 

The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate meeting proceeded as scheduled, maintaining the status quo. The market’s main focus, the dot plot, still maintains the expectation of three interest rate cuts within the year, rather than decreasing as feared.  

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated during the press conference that interest rates are at a cyclical peak and that it would be appropriate to begin easing at some point this year. Although gold is a traditional hedge against inflation, rate cuts would encourage investment in non-interest-bearing gold.  

Gold prices surged significantly as the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, rising more than 2% intra-day and briefly breaking through USD 2200 per ounce to hit a historic high. 

At the opening of the gold market, prices initially retreated to USD 2149.3 after starting at USD 2158.3. During the US session, prices began to rally strongly, breaking through the resistance level at USD 2164.  

In the early morning hours, prices continued to rally strongly due to fundamental factors, with the daily high reaching USD 2188.9 before consolidating. The daily candle ultimately closed at USD 2186.2, forming a large bullish candlestick with a longer lower shadow than upper shadow. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2223-2243. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2183-2163. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Wednesday, ongoing demand concerns continued to weigh on oil prices, halting their two consecutive rises and causing them to retreat from their five-month highs, with intra-day declines exceeding 1%.  

WTI crude oil fell by 1.31%, closing at USD 81.36 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 1.19%, closing at USD 86.13 per barrel. Following the release of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on US crude oil inventories, oil prices remained at intra-day lows.  

The EIA reported an unexpected decrease in crude oil inventories last week, attributed to increased exports and ongoing refinery production activities. The American Petroleum Institute (API) also reported declines in crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, while distillate inventories rose.  

With US production now declining and even Russian supplies facing some delays, upward momentum is being constrained. Crude oil prices experienced a significant decline from their highs yesterday, with a high probability of continued upward movement after the pullback.  

Looking at the daily chart, USD 80 is a critical level, and if breached, a deep pullback may occur. In the short term, attention is focused on the support level around USD 80.80. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 84.5-85.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.8-80.0. 

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