Due to the weakening of the US dollar, despite strong US inflation data, investors still hold hopes for a Fed rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions escalated, keeping the demand for gold as a safe haven unchanged, causing the price of gold to rise by nearly 1%.  

Unexpected decrease in US crude oil inventories, larger-than-expected decrease in US gasoline inventories, and potential supply disruptions following the attack on a Russian refinery in Ukraine caused oil prices to surge by 2%, closing at a four-month high. 

Gold >> 

On Wednesday, boosted by the weakening US dollar, despite sizzling US inflation data, investors still hold hopes for a Fed rate cut in June. Meanwhile, the escalation of geopolitical tensions keeps the demand for gold as a safe haven unchanged.  

Spot gold once approached 2180 during the trading session, ultimately closing up by 0.75% at USD 2174.36 per ounce. COMEX gold closed at USD 2179.40 per ounce, up by 0.61%. 

If the Fed cuts interest rates, gold prices will rise sharply. Conversely, concerns about inflation will also push up gold prices. Therefore, it’s currently a stable situation for gold bulls.  

The market has already factored in the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into prices, and these factors have been ongoing for some time. Escalation or new developments will further support gold prices, and the market needs to focus on geopolitical risks.  

The current focus is on the “terror data” including US retail sales, Producer Price Index, and initial jobless claims, all of which will be released on Thursday. 

Yesterday, on the technical side, gold fluctuated around the 2157 level during the Asia-Europe session, experiencing repeated fluctuations before witnessing bullish momentum pushing upwards.  

During the late US session, it accelerated to break through the 2171 level before retracing back into consolidation, then stabilized around the 2163 level during the late US session, experiencing another bullish rebound and closing strongly. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2185-2190. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2165-2160. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

On Wednesday, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased, with gasoline inventories in the US dropping more than expected. Additionally, there’s the possibility of supply interruptions following the attack on a Russian refinery in Ukraine.  

WTI crude oil ultimately closed up by 2% at USD 79.66 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed up by 1.87% at USD 84.42 per barrel. The market believes that the latest US inflation data will not hinder a mid-year interest rate cut, which has provided support for both oil and broader financial markets.  

Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth, supporting oil demand. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that energy companies unexpectedly withdrew 1.5 million barrels of crude oil from inventories in the week ending March 8th.  

OPEC also maintains its relatively strong growth forecast for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, further raising its estimate for this year’s economic growth, suggesting there is still greater growth potential. 

Technically, oil prices stabilized around the USD 77.5 level yesterday, witnessing strong bullish momentum pushing up from lows, breaking through highs and closing higher. During the Asia-Europe session, prices quickly fell back to test the USD 77.5 level before stabilizing and rebounding.  

In the afternoon, there was further strong upward momentum, breaking through and staying above the USD 78.3 level near the early opening gap, continuing the strong rebound.  

During the late US session, hourly candlesticks continued to rise, breaking through the USD 79 level and accelerating, closing higher above the USD 79.9 level, showing a bullish sentiment in the midst of bottoming and rebounding from the consolidation around the USD 77.5 level as expected. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.5-81.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 77.0-77.6. 

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