1. Forex Market Insight
Fed Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, and Bank of England President Bailey all stated that they are paying close attention to inflation amid soaring energy prices and persistent production bottlenecks.
Euro is one of the currencies that has fallen sharply and it has fallen to its lowest point since July 2020. With this, the three-month risk reversal indicator turned to the most pessimistic since the end of June.
Gabriel Makhlouf, a member of the European Central Bank’s Management Committee, said that policymakers must be prepared to cope with the continued rise in inflation that may be caused by continued supply bottlenecks.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Today, pay attention to the 1.1622-line. If it runs stably below the 1.1622-line, pay attention to the support of the 1.1554-line. If the euro rises above the 1.1622-line again, it will open up further room for rebound. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the 1.1663 and 1.1708 positions.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Market confidence in the pound is crumbling as the U.K. is facing problems including an energy shortage, a shortage of capacity to transport goods domestically and a sense of isolation after Brexit.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
The pound today pays attention to the 1.3409-line. If it falls below the 1.3409-line, it will maintain a bearish trend. At that time, pay attention to the support of 1.3302 and 1.3186. If it is above the 1.3409-line, pay attention to its rebound strength. At that time, pay attention to the suppressive strength in two positions at 1.3574 and 1.3669.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices fell to a more than one-month low yesterday. The dollar index hit a near 11-month high, reducing the attractiveness of the precious metal to investors in other currencies.
Meanwhile, markets have been chasing the dollar this week as they assess the impact of the U.S. debt ceiling dispute and the Federal Reserve’s shift to a more hawkish policy.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Today, gold pays attention to the 1742-line. If the price of gold runs above the 1742-line, focus on the strength of today’s rebound. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the 1740 and 1760 positions. Once the strength of the gold price drops below 1742, it will open up further downside space. At that time, pay attention to 1717 and 1710 support strength in turn.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices fell with the dollar surge on Wednesday, 29th September 2021. The New York crude futures fell by 0.6% and the trend fluctuated throughout the day.
Crude oil futures were dragged lower by the U.S. government report that showed crude oil inventories rose for the first time in eight weeks, with an increase of more than 4 million barrels. In addition, a stronger dollar has reduced the attractiveness of this commodity export, and the current strength of the dollar has reached a level that cannot be ignored.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies may ease production cuts sooner. The White House said on Tuesday, 28th September 2021, that it continues to discuss with international partners, including OPEC, the importance of competitive markets and more action to support economic recovery. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to fall short of demand by 1.2 million barrels per day in October, according to an OPEC secretariat document reviewed by the OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee.
EIA data showed that in addition to an increase in the U.S. crude stocks last week, gasoline stocks rose for a second straight week. Meanwhile, refined oil stocks rose for the first time since late August. Over and above, the U.S. crude exports jumped to more than 3 million barrels per day, indicating a stronger global demand.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Today, the oil prices pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band. On the upper end, focus on the suppression of the two positions at 75.04 and 75.69. Once the strength drops below the lower Bollinger Band, it will open up a further downside potential. At that time, focus on the 72.30-line of support.
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