Investors await clues from Federal Reserve officials on the interest rate path, with gold prices holding steady, dipping by 0.04%; boosted by larger-than-expected declines in US gasoline inventories and escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices have risen for the third consecutive day.  

On this trading day, attention also needs to be paid to changes in US initial jobless claims and speeches by other Federal Reserve officials. 

Gold >> 

On Wednesday, investors awaited clues from Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest rate path. Spot gold briefly broke through the USD 2040 level before retreating, remaining relatively flat with a slight decrease of 0.04%, closing at USD 2035 per ounce; COMEX gold closed at USD 2050.90 per ounce, down 0.02%. 

This week, the US economic calendar is light, so the market’s attention is focused on speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers to find new clues about when the central bank might begin cutting interest rates. Later, market focus may shift to next week’s inflation report. 

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis stated that the central bank needs several more months of strong inflation data to be confident that inflation will return to the 2% target.  

Kashkari speculated that cutting interest rates two to three times this year seems appropriate. Speeches by Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Barkin and Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman are crucial. 

Gold stabilized technically around the USD 2030 level, rebounding after fluctuating. Trading was light during the Asian and European sessions, with a push higher after 23:00 during the US session, breaking through resistance at USD 2044 before retreating to close with fluctuations. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2048-2053. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2030-2025. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Wednesday, supported by a larger-than-expected decline in US gasoline inventories and escalating tensions in the Middle East, US crude oil futures rose by USD 0.55 or 0.75%, settling at USD 73.86 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures closed higher by USD 0.62 or 0.79%, settling at USD 79.21 per barrel. 

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Wednesday that US gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week to 251 million barrels. Federal Reserve officials continued to lean hawkish, with most seen as prepared to cut interest rates but taking a data-dependent stance. 

Cleveland Fed President Mester believes the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates; Boston Fed President Collins stated that if the economy meets expectations, the Fed may lower rates at some point later this year, potentially supporting crude oil futures.  

As expectations for rate cuts decrease, the US dollar weakens, driving up oil prices priced in dollars. Oil prices technically maintained narrow consolidation above the USD 73 level, with a slight pullback during the Asian and European sessions followed by stabilizing around the USD 73.2 level and bouncing back.  

During the US session, there was an accelerated push higher, breaking through the USD 74.2 level and entering a sideways consolidation. The evening close was above USD 74, reporting a slight rebound with overall stability above the USD 73 level, forming a bullish rebound with consecutive positive candles. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 75.0-75.5. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 73.0-72.5. 

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