1. Forex Market Insight
The German disease control agency announced on the 21st August 2021 that the number of new confirmed infections of the Covid-19 virus was at 8092.
On the same day, the country’s COVID-19 incidence index (the number of new diagnoses per 100,000 people on average), used to monitor the severity of the pandemic returned to above the alert value of 50, reaching 51.6
This is the first time since May this year that the index has broken through the warning value officially established by Germany.
In order to boost the current progress of the universal vaccination work, the German Federal Minister of Labour suggested that employers should consider allowing employees to get their vaccination during working hours as a necessity of workplace prevention.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Today, we mainly focus on the support of the 1.1667-line. The euro can only open up further downside potential when it breaks below the 1.1667-line. At that time, pay attention to the support of the 1.1622-line. For the upper side, focus on the suppression of the two positions, 1.1733 and 1.1753.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The dollar reached a nine-month high as Dallas Fed President Kaplan mentioned that he is open to adjusting his view on that how the Federal Reserve should start tapering its asset-purchase program sooner rather than later. This is if the delta variant persists, and hurts economic progress.
The Fed is currently buying $80 billion of U.S. Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month, injecting liquidity into the market to revive the U.S. economy, which is being dragged down by the anti-epidemic embargo.
Kaplan also said that he supports a gradual reduction in bond purchases starting in October, and said such policy support is bringing unexpected consequences, such as rising housing prices and rents. As a result, this has led to the recent downward fluctuation for the pound.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
Today, the pound maintains its bearish trend. With this, we will pay attention to the suppression of the 1.3069-line. If the pound runs steadily below the 1.3069-line, it could maintain its bearish trend.
Once the pound stands above the 1.3069-line, shift the attention to the two positions of suppression strength, 1.3721 and 1.3777.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Despite the relative volatility of sentiment over the past few months, the recent volatility in the price of gold reflects the low sentiment of retail investors. As the global economy faces rising inflation and a slowing recovery from the pandemic, the gold market is being hit by various forces. Meanwhile, the market is trying to gauge the Fed’s next move and its impact on bond yields and the U.S. dollar.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Today, the price of gold is still in the shock range between 1768 and 1795. A break above 1795 will open up greater upside potential. At that time, we will pay attention to the suppression of 1808 and 1819 in turn. Meanwhile, a break below 1768 will open up greater downside potential. At that time, we will pay attention to 1755.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
U.S. crude oil hovered around 62.52 as oil prices fell on Friday, 20th August 2021, and hit their longest losing streak since 2019. The U.S. dollar was strengthened by the Federal Reserve’s signal, and the resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic put the demand outlook in doubt.
The focus during the day will be on the preliminary value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for August and the total annualized U.S. existing home sales for July.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices today are mainly focused on the suppression of oil prices in the range of 63.35 to 64.01. Once the oil prices break through the 64.01-line of the upper boundary range, further room for a rebound will be opened. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the two positions at 65.16 and 66.35. If oil prices are slow in breaking through this range, it means that oil prices will fall again. At that time, we will pay attention to the strength of support at 61.72 and 60.77.
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