The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations for March cooled down, and gold rebounded slightly for consecutive days, but still dropped over 1% for the entire week, marking the largest weekly decline in six weeks.  

This week, the market is focusing on U.S. PCE data; tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, causing global economic concerns, leading to a Friday drop in oil prices, although there is still a weekly gain recorded. 

Gold >>  

Last Friday, due to recent robust U.S. economic data prompting traders to reconsider their bets on interest rate cuts, spot gold rebounded slightly for consecutive days but still dropped over 1% for the entire week, marking the largest weekly decline since early December of last year.  

Spot gold closed up 0.32% at USD 2029.58 per ounce; gold futures closed up 0.38% at USD 2029.3 per ounce. The outlook for U.S. inflation remains uncertain, with price growth gradually declining.  

However, recently released household spending data was strong, adding to inflationary pressures and making it more likely for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance over an extended period.  

This week, the market is focused on U.S. PCE data and the monetary policy decisions of the three major central banks, while the U.S. dollar may experience some volatility. 

On the technical side, gold stabilized around the 2020 level, experiencing oscillations and rebounding. In the late U.S. session, there was an accelerated upward movement, breaking through the 2039 level but facing pressure, leading to a retreat and oscillation in the closing. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2040-2045. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2017-2020. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

Last Friday, crude oil fell from a three-week high, but still recorded a cumulative weekly gain. WTI crude oil dropped by 0.90% or USD 0.67 per barrel, closing at USD 73.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.68% or USD 0.54 per barrel, closing at USD 78.56 per barrel. 

Extreme cold weather disrupting U.S. oil production and a new round of U.S. strikes against Houthi anti-ship missiles intensifying tensions in the Middle East contributed to the weekly rise in oil prices. Brent crude oil prices rose by approximately 0.5%, and the U.S. benchmark crude oil prices rose by over 1%. 

On the technical side, oil prices oscillated repeatedly around the USD 74 level, experiencing a seesaw pattern of highs and lows. After reaching a high and retracing, oil prices accelerated upward in the late U.S. session after 23:00, breaking through the USD 74.9 level but facing resistance, leading to a retracement and closing near USD 73.5. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 74.8-75.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 71.8-72.0. 

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