Worries about inflationary pressures have boosted hedging demand for gold. The growth of the US service sector further slowed in March, causing the US dollar index to fall from a four-and-a-half-month high to a one-week low, continuing to provide upward momentum for gold prices, extending the trend of hitting record highs.  

Investors are concerned that deteriorating geopolitical situations may disrupt supplies, but a significant increase in US crude oil inventories has alleviated some concerns, with oil prices closing at their highest level since the end of October. 

Gold >> 

On Wednesday, concerns about inflationary pressures boosted hedging demand for gold. The growth of the US service sector further slowed in March, causing the US dollar index to fall from a four-and-a-half-month high to a one-week low, continuing to provide upward momentum for gold prices.  

Spot gold briefly surged past the USD 2300 mark, hitting a new historical high, rising more than USD 200 so far this year, and ultimately closing up 0.84% at USD 2299.53 per ounce. 

Federal Reserve officials believe that three interest rate cuts this year are a “reasonable” forecast, although recent stronger-than-expected economic data has raised doubts in the market about this outcome.  

Data released this week showed an unexpected rebound in US manufacturing, with rising raw material prices sparking concerns about the possibility of inflation resurfacing. Gold is used as a hedge against inflation and as a safe-haven tool during periods of political and economic uncertainty.  

So far this year, gold prices have risen by approximately 10.8% and are expected to rise for the seventh consecutive trading day. Yesterday, gold’s technical outlook was initially subdued but later improved.  

During the Asian and European sessions, it faced pressure around the USD 2288 level, quickly falling, and then retreated further in the afternoon, breaking through the USD 2270 level and reaching around USD 2267 before entering a sideways consolidation phase.  

In the late US session, under the bearish impact of APD data, gold prices first fell and then rose, stabilizing around the USD 2265 level before staging a strong rebound to close higher. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2315-2320. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2265-2270. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Wednesday, investors were concerned that the deteriorating geopolitical situation could disrupt supplies, but a significant increase in US crude oil inventories alleviated some of those concerns.  

WTI crude oil briefly surged above USD 86 per barrel, continuing to hit new highs since October last year, but failed to hold this level. It eventually closed up 0.23% at USD 85.59 per barrel.  

Brent crude oil also approached the USD 90 mark at one point during trading, but failed to stay above it. It closed up 0.29% at USD 89.49 per barrel. 

Earlier in the trading session, both crude oils rose by over USD 1, but retreated slightly after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 3.2 million barrels in crude oil inventories.

Both crude oil benchmarks touched intra-day highs for the fifth consecutive month over the past three trading days, with concerns in the market that conflicts in Ukraine, Russia, and the Middle East could escalate, leading to tighter oil supplies. 

Yesterday, oil prices technically continued to consolidate above the USD 84.8 level, showing bullish momentum. In the late US session, prices accelerated higher, breaking through the USD 86.1 level but faced resistance and fell back.  

Overnight, crude oil continued its decline to around the USD 85.4 level, closing near the high-end with a volatile doji candlestick pattern. Overall, prices are currently supported by the 5-day moving average, continuing the bullish consolidation pattern. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 86.6-87.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 84.5-84.0. 

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