The retail sales data is optimistic, and market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut in March have cooled again. The gold price fell to a new low in over a month, closing down more than 1%.  

Severe weather disrupted some oil production in the United States, leading to a bullish “counterattack,” with U.S. oil closing up more than 1%. 

Gold >> 

On Wednesday, the U.S. Census Bureau released strong retail sales data for December, driving up yields on U.S. government bonds due to robust economic indicators. Traders, in turn, reduced bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to the selling of gold.  

Gold fell below USD 2010 per ounce, approaching the psychological support level of USD 2000 per ounce, touching a low of USD 2001.72 per ounce, the lowest since December 14. It is expected to face further pressure in the future.  

Spot gold closed down 1.09%, at USD 2006.18 per ounce, while gold futures fell 1.17%, closing at USD 2006.50 per ounce. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, released last week, exceeded expectations and showed strong inflationary pressures.  

This poses a significant challenge for Federal Reserve policymakers, possibly due to a stable labor market and strong consumer spending momentum. The Fed’s hasty interest rate cuts could lead to persistent inflationary pressures and weaken efforts to achieve price stability.  

With various economic data remaining strong, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the upward momentum of gold prices. On the technical side, gold faced pressure around the 2032 level, experiencing bearish fluctuations and closing below the previous low.  

During the Asian-European session, there was a slight rebound but pressure around the 2032 level led to rapid downward fluctuations. In the afternoon, there was a further decline, breaking through the 2020 level and reaching around 2017, entering a sideways oscillation.  

In the late U.S. session, there were two consecutive rebounds but faced resistance around the 2029 level, falling again. In the early morning, the downward trend continued, reaching near the 2001 level, closing weakly. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2025-2030. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2000-1995. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Wednesday, U.S. crude oil closed at USD 72.81 per barrel, showing an increase of approximately 1.27%. Brent crude oil futures recorded a slight gain of 0.23%, closing at USD 78.11 per barrel, although the settlement price declined by 0.23%. 

Oil prices experienced a bottoming and rebound. Earlier in the day, they had briefly hit a new low in nearly a week at USD 70.49 per barrel, down nearly 2%, as the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen to over a one-month high.  

However, bullish momentum emerged due to severe cold weather disrupting some U.S. oil production, reversing the downward trend. Technically, oil prices fluctuated in trading, initially suppressing and then rising again.  

After probing the bottom and rebounding, they showed a recovery with a positive closing. During the Asian-European session, prices were under pressure, suppressing and oscillating downwards near the USD 72 level.  

In the afternoon, they further broke through the USD 71 level and continued to decline to around USD 70.5, entering a sideways oscillation. In the late evening after 23:00, the bulls showed strong bottoming and rebounding momentum, leading to an upward oscillation.  

Eventually, oil prices closed with consecutive gains, breaking through and staying above the USD 72.5 level. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 74.0-75.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 71.0-70.0. 

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