The expectation of a Fed rate cut strengthened, causing a slight increase in gold prices, which briefly approached the 2200 mark during the session. However, with US durable goods orders data stronger than expected, the dollar index reversed its decline to rise, narrowing the increase in gold prices to 0.3%.  

The upcoming OPEC+ meeting next week is unlikely to make any changes to oil production policies, and the latest data shows API crude inventories increasing more than expected, leading to a slight decline in crude oil prices as demand concerns slightly rise. 

Gold >> 

The expectation of a Fed rate cut strengthened, leading to a slight rise in gold prices. However, with US durable goods orders data stronger than expected, the dollar index reversed its decline to rise.  

Spot gold surged significantly during the European session, briefly breaking above the USD 2200 mark before the US session, but failed to hold ground and retraced most of its gains. It ultimately closed up by 0.33%, at USD 2179.03 per ounce. 

The market is currently awaiting US PCE data, which is crucial for a deeper understanding of inflation trends and guiding the future monetary policy path of the Fed.  

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds edged slightly lower, reflecting investors’ response to the latest economic indicators and expectations for upcoming inflation data.  

The dollar index edged slightly lower, partly due to hints from Fed officials suggesting a possible 25 basis point rate cut in June, as well as the impact of a stronger yen and expectations for the release of US core PCE data, which will have significant implications for future US interest rate trends. 

Yesterday, gold prices experienced wide-ranging oscillations in both directions. Prices stabilized around the USD 2167 mark during the Asian-European session, rebounding from the oscillations, and further accelerated in the afternoon, breaking above the previous day’s high of USD 2181 and experiencing accelerated upward movement.  

Before the US session, gold prices continued to rise, breaking through the USD 2190 mark and reaching near USD 2199 before facing pressure and falling back. After 9 PM, gold prices fell continuously, breaking below the USD 2180 mark and reaching around USD 2171 before closing weakly. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2195-2200. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2165-2160. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

The latest data shows that API crude inventories increased more than expected, while the upcoming OPEC+ meeting is unlikely to bring any changes to oil production policies, leading to a resurgence in demand concerns.  

WTI crude oil briefly rose above USD 82 during the session but experienced a significant decline during the US session, ultimately closing down by 0.84% at USD 81.22 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.9% to USD 85.24 per barrel. 

API crude inventory data revealed an unexpected surge of 9.337 million barrels last week, marking the largest weekly increase since the week of November 8th.  

The Russian government has ordered oil companies to reduce production in the second quarter to meet the target of 9 million barrels per day, thereby fulfilling commitments to the OPEC+ alliance, which subsequently pressured oil prices downward.  

On the other hand, three OPEC+ sources indicated before next week’s ministerial meeting that OPEC+ is unlikely to make any changes to oil production policies before the full ministerial meeting in June, and it is expected that no policy recommendations will be made at this meeting. 

Yesterday, oil prices continued to trade in a narrow range, with slight gains during the US session briefly pushing past the USD 82.3 mark before retreating and oscillating lower. Overnight, oil prices continued to decline, breaking slightly below recent lows and closing with minor losses. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 82.5-83.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.0-79.5. 

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