Due to the PCE data released last Friday, market expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased. The price of gold surged to a historic high of USD 2265 at one point.  

However, after the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data returned above the 50 mark for the first time in a year and a half, market expectations for a rate cut in June retreated. Consequently, the dollar and bond yields rose, causing gold prices to partially reverse their gains.  

Market expectations suggest that economic growth in the United States and China will boost demand. A survey indicates a slight decrease in OPEC oil production in March, while attacks on Russian refineries have also increased supply pressures, leading to an increase in crude oil prices to a five-month high. 

Gold >>   

Due to the PCE data released last Friday, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June warmed up, with the price of gold briefly hitting a historic high of USD 2265.  

However, after the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data returned above the 50 mark for the first time in a year and a half, market expectations for a rate cut in June retreated. This led to a rise in the dollar and bond yields, causing gold prices to give back some of their gains.  

Spot gold ultimately closed up 0.84% at USD 2251.16 per ounce. Following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, gold prices climbed to record highs on Monday, further cementing market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.  

The Fed’s willingness to tolerate inflation well above 2%, while still considering rate cuts, provided support for risk assets. With falling interest rates, gold becomes more attractive relative to fixed-income assets such as bonds. In a low-interest-rate environment, bond yields are lower.  

This week, the market will continue to focus on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for further guidance. Gold prices showed mixed technical movements yesterday, rising initially before falling.  

During the Asian session, prices quickly rose, supported around the USD 2243 level, then accelerated higher in the afternoon, breaking through the USD 2265 level before retreating amid consolidation.  

In the late U.S. session, prices made a second attempt to rise but faced resistance around the USD 2257 level before falling again, breaking through the USD 2240 level to reach around USD 2228, where they stabilized and experienced some upward movement before closing. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2265-2270. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2220-2230. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

Market expectations for economic growth in the United States and China are expected to boost demand. Surveys indicate a slight decrease in OPEC oil production in March, and attacks on Russian refineries have increased supply pressures, causing crude oil prices to rise to a five-month high.  

WTI crude oil briefly touched USD 84 per barrel during trading, rising over 1% intraday, continuing to reach new highs since October last year, ultimately closing up 1.03% at USD 83.91 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.94% at USD 87.74 per barrel. 

OPEC+ has pledged to extend production cuts until the end of June, which may lead to tight oil supply during the summer period in the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, several Russian refineries have been targeted by drone attacks, which is expected to reduce Russia’s fuel exports.  

Investors are also closely watching U.S. economic data for signs that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year, as this would support global economic growth and oil demand. Furthermore, concerns about further escalation of tensions in the Middle East are providing support for oil prices. 

Yesterday, oil prices stabilized around the USD 82.5 level, witnessing bullish fluctuations before closing higher. During the Asian and European sessions, there was a slight pullback and stabilization around the USD 82.5 level before experiencing a rebound. In the late U.S. session, there was a second pullback and stabilization around the USD 82.9 level before continuing the rebound and closing higher. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 84.6-85.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 82.0-81.5. 

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