Although the U.S. durable goods orders data for January performed poorly, the gold price remained steady as some short-term long positions were liquidated. Investors this week will focus on key inflation data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials. 

OPEC+ is considering extending voluntary oil production cuts into the second quarter to provide more support, leading to an increase in oil prices by over USD 1, hitting a new high for over a week. 

Gold >>  

On Tuesday, despite the poor performance of U.S. durable goods orders data for January, the gold price remained stable as some short-term long positions were liquidated.  

Spot gold failed to break through the key level of USD 2040 and retraced all its intraday gains during the U.S. session, ultimately holding just above USD 2030, closing down 0.06% at USD 2030.11 per ounce; COMEX gold futures closed up 0.02% at USD 2039.4 per ounce. 

The U.S. dollar index stayed weak, hovering near three-week lows, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that given the upward risks to inflation that could hinder progress or lead to a resurgence of price pressures, there is no rush to cut interest rates. 

Bowman mentioned that inflation is expected to be “moderate” and added that she would “be cautious when considering changes to future policy stances”.  

However, data showed that U.S. durable goods orders in January saw the largest decline in nearly four years, while business equipment investment seemed to slow down, indicating that the economy lost momentum at the beginning of the year. 

Yesterday, gold prices followed a pattern of initial rise followed by a decline, continuing the recent oscillation between bullish and bearish sentiments. During the Asian-European sessions, gold prices fluctuated slightly around the USD 2030 level before rebounding slightly.  

In the afternoon, prices accelerated higher, breaking through the USD 2039 level but facing resistance and falling back. During the U.S. session, under continued pressure, prices weakened further, eventually closing below the USD 2029 level, settling near USD 2028. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2042-2045. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2020-2017. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Tuesday, OPEC+ is considering extending voluntary oil production cuts into the second quarter to provide more support, leading to a 1.2% increase in WTI crude oil, closing at USD 78.71 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.75%, closing at USD 83.28 per barrel. 

Improvements in the demand side of the market are further boosting market confidence, as evidenced by the recent rebound in the price difference of refined oil products in European and American markets. The strengthening of diesel prices domestically also reinforces this viewpoint gradually.  

The strong performance of U.S. crude oil may once again lead the global crude oil market, breaking through the current resistance levels that are driving the rebound in oil prices.  

Additionally, institutions generally believe that OPEC+ will extend the production reduction cycle, and attention will also be needed on statements from OPEC+ member countries regarding production policy in March. 

Yesterday, oil prices stabilized above the USD 77.2 level and saw another strong oscillation driven by bullish sentiment, breaking through higher levels before closing. During the Asian-European sessions, there was a slight retracement and stabilization around the USD 77.2 level, followed by a slight rebound.  

In the late U.S. session, prices oscillated sideways around the USD 78 level before accelerating higher, breaking through the USD 78.9 level and closing strongly in the early hours. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 79.5-80.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 77.3-76.8. 

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