1. Forex Market Insight
They are starting to consider the slower pace of rate hikes that Lagarde indicated last December, according to officials briefed on discussions among ECB policymakers.
The officials said that while the 50 basis point hike hinted at by Lagarde in February is still possible, the prospect of a modest 25 basis point hike at the next meeting in March is gaining support. The news, although unconfirmed, weighed on the euro that day.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 1.0776 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0776 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0734 and 1.0697. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0776 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0832 and 1.0871.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The Office for National Statistics said average weekly pay, net of bonuses, rose 6.4% year-on-year between September and November, the largest increase since records began in 2001, which excludes abnormal increases due to city closures and government subsidy measures during the epidemic.
The Office for National Statistics said the U.K. unemployment rate remained at 3.7% over the same period, in line with market forecasts and near its lowest level in nearly 50 years.
The data showed a tight labor market and accelerating wage growth, adding to the Bank of England’s inflation concerns and raising market expectations that the BoE will continue to raise interest rates. This is one of the main reasons why the pound is currently well-supported.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2298-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2298-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2222 and 1.2147. If GBP runs above the 1.2298-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2445 and 1.2540.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices fell Wednesday, 18th January 2023, giving back earlier gains made on weak U.S. economic data, but remained above the $1,900 level as key Federal Reserve policymakers signaled their intention to continue raising interest rates to fight inflation.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,904.84 an ounce, after hitting a daily low of $1,896.32 earlier.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1899-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1899-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1892 and 1880 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1899-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1909 and 1919.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices fell about 1% Wednesday, giving back earlier gains, as concerns about a possible U.S. recession overshadowed optimism that lifting new crown restrictions would boost demand for its crude.
Two major indicators of crude oil touched their highest since Dec. 5 at one point during the session. U.S. crude closed lower for the first time in nine trading days.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices focus on the 79.28 – line today. If the oil price runs above the 79.28 -line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 80.13 and 81.31. If the oil price runs below the 79.28 -line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 78.14 and 76.94.
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