1. Forex Market Insight
Yesterday, data showed that the U.S. housing construction unexpectedly fell in September and building permits fell to a one-year low due to severe shortages of raw materials and labor.
In this regard, it is supporting expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter. Through this, the dollar fell, leading the euro to fluctuate upward.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Today, we pay attention to the 1.1622-line. If the euro is suppressed by the 1.1622-line, it will test the 1.1554-line of support again. If the euro breaks through 1.1622 and stabilizes above the 1.1622-line, it will open up a further upside space. Then, pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.1708 and 1.1663 in turn.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The dollar narrowed its losses yesterday as the U.S. Treasury yields (yield rates) climbed, but remained lower during the day as other currencies, including the pound, were boosted by expectations of an earlier-than-expected rate hike.
The dollar hit a one-year high against a basket of other currencies last week as the U.S. bond yields surged and investors bet the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to tackle high inflation. Additionally, yields appeared to stabilize yesterday, then moved higher again, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting a more than three-month high.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
The pound today is mainly focused on the first line of the middle Bollinger band. If the pound steadily runs above the middle rail of the Bollinger band, it will maintain the bullish trend. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the 1.3888-line. If the strength of the pound falls below the middle rail of the Bollinger band, it will open up a further room for callbacks. At that time, pay attention to the support at 1.3721 and 1.3669.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices fell slightly as the U.S. dollar index rallied. This comes after gold had been gaining support from the stagflation theme, brewing in recent weeks and from a weaker dollar.
The U.S. dollar performed poorly yesterday as the rest of the central banks’ currencies were on the verge of an uptrend. Movements in the foreign exchange market weakened the appeal of the dollar, which had benefited from expectations that interest rate hikes would come sooner than previously expected.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Today, gold pays attention to the 1782-line. If the 1782-line is under pressure, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1768 and 1757. If the strength breaks through 1782 and stands above the first line of 1782, it will then test the suppression of the first line of 1801 again.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
U.S. oil hovered near $82.50 per barrel. API data released in the morning showed an increase in crude oil inventories but a decrease in gasoline inventories.
Oil prices rose yesterday, with U.S. oil closing at a seven-year high of $82.46 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent oil closed above $85 per barrel for the first time since October 2018, driven by stronger equity markets, and lingering concerns about the global energy crisis, as well as the impact of increased demand as winter approaches.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices are still paying attention to the 80-line today. If the oil price is above the 80-line, keep the idea of maintaining the bullish trend. Then, pay attention to the suppression of the 84.23-line in turn. If the oil price falls below the 80-line, it will open up further a downside space. At that time, pay attention to 78.25. and 76.89 support strength.
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