1. Forex Market Insight
Senior Fed officials continue to put hawk, and data show that the U.S. economy has not fallen into recession, inflation has topped foreshadowing, boosting the dollar, but before the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls this Friday, 5th August 2022, market sentiment is cautious, the dollar maintained in the rally high pull.
Among non-U.S. assets, European currencies are consolidating around key support, still waiting for clear direction.
As this week’s non-farm payrolls for the Fed’s interest rate resolution statement to data speak after the first heavy economic data, the market expects to seek clues from the future rate hikes, until then, market volatility may be cautious.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
We focus on the 1.0116-line today. If EUR runs steadily below the 1.0116-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 0.9999 and 0.9938. If the strength of EUR breaks above the 1.0116-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0277 and 1.0357.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates by 50 basis points as expected, the largest single rate hike since 1995, but forecast higher peak inflation and a four-quarter recession in the economy.
Although the rate hike has increased, but with it is the market for the United Kingdom’s economic development prospects are pessimistic, so the pound is not stimulated by the news of interest rate hikes and too much to raise the role of the hype.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2106-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2106-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2056 and 1.2005. If GBP runs above the 1.2106-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2243 and 1.2301.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices climbed more than 1% to a one-month high on Thursday, 4th August 2022, as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreated and investors kept a close eye on geopolitical tensions.
Investors also weighed in on the data, which showed an increase in U.S. initial jobless claims last week.
The Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 in the week ended 30th July 2022; investors are now looking at the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due out Friday, 5th August 2022.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1793-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1793-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1783 and 1768 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1793-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1807 and 1816.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Global oil prices touched their lowest level on Thursday, 4th August 2022, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.
Traders are worried about a possible recession later this year, which could hit energy demand hard.
The drop in oil prices may be a relief to large consumer countries, including the United States and European countries, which have been urging oil producers to increase production to offset tight supplies and fight soaring inflation.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices focus on the 89.89-line today. If the oil price runs above the 89.89-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 91.06 and 91.88. If the oil price runs below the 89.89-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 88.02 and 85.72.
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