The data shows an increase in unemployment claims in the United States last week, causing gold prices to gradually rise, nearing a high point in nearly a month.  

Concerns persist over Middle Eastern supply amidst heightened military actions in the region’s waters, but expectations for the OPEC+ meeting also keep traders cautious, leading to a drop in oil prices by over 2%.

Market attention shifts to the US non-farm employment data to glean more clues about the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. 

Gold >> 

On Thursday, data showed an increase in initial jobless claims in the United States, with spot gold closing up 0.77% at USD 2054.88 per ounce; COMEX April gold futures settlement price rose by 0.18% to USD 2071.1 per ounce. 

As of the week ending January 27th, initial jobless claims rose to 224,000. Another report indicated that US worker productivity grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter.  

Due to the impact of initial jobless claims, gold experienced a slight rebound. Investor focus is now shifting to Friday’s US non-farm payroll data for more clues about interest rate trends.  

If Friday’s labor market data disappoints, gold prices could further rise, as expectations of lower interest rates often benefit non-yield assets. 

On the technical side, gold initially suppressed and then rebounded with a deep V-shaped pattern, washing out short positions and breaking through highs. In the Asian-European session, prices were pressured below the 2049 level, suppressing and fluctuating downwards.  

During the late American session, prices stabilized and rebounded around the 2030 level before experiencing a deep V-shaped bottoming and continuous upward movement, breaking through the previous day’s high of 2058 and closing strongly at the 2065 level. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2047-2050. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2020-2026. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Thursday, amidst increased military actions in the Red Sea, concerns about Middle Eastern supplies persisted, but expectations for the OPEC+ meeting also kept traders cautious.  

WTI March crude oil futures settled down USD 2.03 per barrel, or 2.67%, closing at USD 73.82 per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures settled down USD 1.85 per barrel, or 2.29%, closing at USD 78.70 per barrel. 

The recent tensions in the Middle East have consistently driven up oil prices, with concerns about Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea leading to increased costs and disrupting global oil trade. 

OPEC+ is currently voluntarily cutting production by 2.2 million barrels per day, a reduction plan announced in November last year.  

OPEC+’s mediocre performance in production cuts at the end of 2023 is a key point in the oil price debate, as it suggests that market tightness in 2024 is lower than initially expected. 

From a technical standpoint, oil prices oscillated repeatedly around the USD 76.5 level before encountering bearish pressure, leading to a downward breakthrough and closing below.  

During the Asian-European session, prices rebounded slightly, supported by the USD 75.5 level, before further suppression below USD 76.7 and consolidation.  

In the late American session, prices experienced a slight rise but were capped around the USD 77 level, leading to a bearish downturn and breaking through the USD 75 and USD 74 integer levels to reach a weak closing near USD 73.7. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 78.0-78.6. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 74.0-75.0. 

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