This week, the market is expected to witness interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.  

Additionally, crucial economic data such as the U.S. May CPI and retail sales figures will be released. Industry insiders have warned that there is a risk of surging growth in May CPI data, which will be released a day before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.  

There is a possibility that overall inflation may remain below core inflation. If the core inflation rate exceeds the market’s general expectation of 0.4%, it could further fuel market expectations of interest rate hikes. 

Gold >> 

Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant adjustment, ending the week with a decline of 0.48%. On the other hand, Precious Metal prices rebounded after a period of decline, with COMEX Gold posting a gain of 0.58%.  

Looking at the medium to long term, the U.S. debt situation makes it challenging to achieve the policy goal of 2% inflation within 1 to 2 years. It is expected to remain in the range of 3% to 3.5%. 

Based on the current endpoint of interest rate hikes (5.08%), the real interest rate is estimated to range between 1.65% and 2.1%. It is predicted that gold, priced in U.S. dollars, will fluctuate between USD 1900 per ounce and USD 2100 per ounce, lingering near historical highs for an extended period.  

When the U.S. inflation issue resurfaces due to an expansion of the debt ceiling, there may be another opportunity for a trend-based rise in gold prices. 

The current market is in the process of forming the third peak of a triple-top pattern. This suggests that there is still upward momentum around the level of 1985, and the focus in the future should be on the breakout above this level.  

In today’s early session, selling at higher levels is the main strategy, while buying on dips at lower levels is a secondary approach. The key resistance levels to watch above are in the range of 1968 to 1973, and the short-term key support levels below are around 1945 to 1950. 

Technical Analysis:

During the Asian-European session, consider buying on a pullback towards 1950, with a stop loss at 1943 and a target of 1960-1963. 

During the European-American session, look for selling pressure around 1970, with a stop loss at 1977 and a target of 1960-1955. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

The oil price has remained in a relatively narrow range for the past 5 weeks, with the lower end of the range formed by the year-to-date low influenced by the European-American banking crisis, while the upper end is constrained by the resistance from the lower end of the first-quarter volatility range. 

The intertwined factors of bulls and bears have made it increasingly difficult for investors to make bets, especially after the false news of Iran’s return to the market circulated in the overnight market on Thursday, causing a significant fluctuation of nearly USD 4 per barrel in oil prices.  

This has made it challenging for investors to determine the next direction of oil prices with certainty. 

Crude oil prices experienced a weak rebound under pressure last Friday, but faced resistance around the USD 71.9 level, leading to a retreat and a bearish close.  

During the Asian and European sessions, there was a minor pullback, briefly touching the resistance level at USD 71.9 before retreating again. In the late U.S. session, prices declined further, breaking below the USD 71 level and reaching around USD 70.4, where they encountered resistance and closed with a fluctuation. 

Today, there is resistance near the 70.8-71 level. An intraday rebound is expected to face pressure at this level, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend with a downward target.  

The focus remains on breaking the support level, with the key short-term resistance at 71.5 acting as a pivotal point for the bearish momentum. 

Technical Analysis: 

Enter a short position at 71.2 during the Asian-European session, with a stop loss at 71.9 and a target range of 70.2 to 70. 

During the European-American session, sell directly at 70.9, with a stop loss at 71.6 and a target range of 70 to 69.5. 

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