The market is paying attention to indications of a U.S. interest rate cut, and gold prices are regaining positive momentum, closing slightly higher.  

Supply has recovered, hindering the upward trend in international oil prices, leading to declines in both crude oil types. The market is focused on multiple data reports and meetings scheduled for this week. 

Gold >> 

On Tuesday, investors awaited a series of economic data releases in the United States this week to find more clues about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut timetable.  

In anticipation, gold prices edged slightly higher. Spot gold closed up 0.37%, at USD 2029.17 per ounce. Gold futures rose 0.18%, closing at USD 2025.8 per ounce. 

Gold prices regained positive momentum but struggled to sustain the momentum. Federal Reserve officials stated last week that before making any interest rate cut judgments, the Fed needs more inflation data, with the baseline for starting rate cuts being in the third quarter.  

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged at the policy meeting ending on January 30-31 and has shortened the time for the first rate cut. 

This week, the market is focused on the initial report of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the United States, the fourth-quarter GDP estimate scheduled for Thursday, and Friday’s personal consumption expenditure data.  

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to hold a meeting on Thursday, likely maintaining stable monetary policy. On the technical side, gold prices experienced initial suppression followed by a rebound.  

During the Asian-European session, overall prices retraced slightly and stabilized around the 2006 level, showing a rebound and recovery. In the late U.S. session, prices rose further, breaking through the 2017 level before encountering resistance, leading to oscillations and declines.  

During the late U.S. session, there was a second retracement, stabilizing around the 2008 level, followed by another rebound. Ultimately, gold prices rebounded, reaching the European session’s opening drop point and continuing the rebound around the 2017 level. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2037-2042. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2017-2012. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Tuesday, international crude oil futures experienced weak and volatile trading as the supply of crude oil from Libya and North Dakota, USA, saw recovery. The prices declined during the session, failing to extend the gains seen on Monday.  

U.S. crude oil closed down USD 0.39 per barrel, a decrease of 0.5%, at USD 74.37 per barrel. Brent crude oil dropped USD 0.51 per barrel, closing at USD 79.55 per barrel, marking a decrease of 0.64%.  

The decline in oil prices was attributed to traders focusing on the rebound in crude oil production in certain regions of the United States and increased supply from Libya and Norway, rather than the supply risks arising from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.  

Data released by the Department of Natural Resources in North Dakota showed a decrease in crude oil production in the state by 250,000 to 300,000 barrels on the 23rd, which was less than the decrease of 700,000 barrels per day a week earlier. 

From a technical standpoint, oil prices experienced initial suppression followed by a rebound. During the Asian-European session, prices retraced slightly and stabilized around the 72.5 level, leading to an oscillating rebound.  

In the U.S. session, there were repeated fluctuations around the 73.7 level, entering a sideways consolidation.  

Eventually, during the late U.S. session, there was a second retracement, stabilizing around the 73.2 level, and witnessing a strong upward movement led by the bulls breaking through the high. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 75.5-76.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 72.5-72.0. 

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