Supported by the expectation of major central banks nearing the end of their tightening actions, gold prices rose, recording the best monthly performance in four months.  

Additionally, global oil prices reached a three-month high due to tightening supply and increasing demand throughout the year, with the largest monthly gain since January 2022. 

Gold>>

Due to a weakening US dollar and market expectations of major central banks nearing the peak of interest rate hikes, gold prices rose on Monday, recording their best single-month performance in four months. 

In early US trading, spot gold briefly rose to a high of $1972.39 per ounce before retreating to around $1967. So far this month, gold prices have increased by 2.5%. The declining US dollar index for the second consecutive month has increased the attractiveness of gold to holders of other currencies.  

Asian and European stock markets showed mixed movements in overnight trading. The market is increasingly betting that the central bank tightening cycle is nearing its end this month, benefiting gold. This week, the market will focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report for July. 

Gold opened the day under pressure at around $1960, rebounded during the European session, retraced to around $1951, but quickly bounced back, currently trading above $1970, and even piercing through the 10-day moving average at $1965, reaching a high near $1972. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term gold trading advice is to focus on buying on pullbacks and consider shorting on rebounds.  

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are between $1975 and $1980. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are between $1955 and $1950. 

WTI Crude Oil>>

On Monday, in the US market, WTI crude oil traded around $81.39 per barrel, marking a three-month high and recording the largest monthly gain since January 2022. The surge is attributed to signs of tightening global supply and increasing demand for the remainder of the year.  

According to data from energy services company Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs in the US decreased to 529 last week, the lowest level since March 2022. 

Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its voluntary production cuts until September, with analysts predicting that this move will provide additional support to the oil market.  

Previously, OPEC+ reached a broad agreement in June to extend production cuts until 2024, and Saudi Arabia pledged additional voluntary cuts in July. 

Overall, optimistic demand expectations and supply reductions are expected to keep oil prices on an upward trajectory. However, it is essential to monitor developments such as Russia’s agreement to sell most of its oil production and signs of easing geopolitical tensions, as they may limit the extent of the price increase. 

Last week, crude oil continued its upward trend, displaying a strong performance with consecutive weekly gains. The weekly closing was robust, indicating that the upward momentum is likely to continue this week. 

Technical Analysis: 

Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on long positions on pullbacks and short positions on rebounds.  

• Key resistance levels to monitor on the upside at around 83.0-83.5. 
• Key support levels to monitor on the downside at around 81.0-79.5. 

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