Lower-than-expected economic data has boosted expectations of interest rate cuts, while the weakening US dollar pushed gold to its highest point in two months last Friday.  

Negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine have become more complex, contributing to a nearly 2% increase in oil prices, with the market now turning its attention to the February non-farm payroll report this week. 

Gold >> 

Last Friday, lower-than-expected economic data, coupled with a weakening US dollar, drove gold prices higher, with spot gold briefly surging over 2% to reach a two-month high. Spot gold closed up 1.89% at USD 2082.98 per ounce, while COMEX April gold futures gained 2% to settle at USD 2095.70 per ounce. 

The gold market is experiencing its best weekly gain since November last year, as market expectations of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy mid-year are seen as reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, potentially leading to further price increases.  

This week, gold may face significant tests with the release of the February non-farm payroll report, and market attention will be keenly focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s two-day testimony before Congress. 

Technical analysis indicates that last Friday, gold prices saw a minor pullback around the 2039 level before stabilizing and rallying strongly. In the afternoon session, there was a further rebound above 2050, reaching near the 2057 level before encountering resistance and pulling back.  

During the late US trading session, gold prices stabilized around the 2045 level before a rapid acceleration in buying pressure pushed prices higher, ultimately closing strong near 2088 with consecutive hourly gains and breaking through the 2060, 2070, and 2080 integer levels. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2088-2093. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2065-2060.  

WTI Crude Oil >> 

Last Friday, the release of US PCE data coincided with further complications in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiations, leading WTI crude oil to close up 1.94% at USD 79.96 per barrel. Brent crude oil has hovered above the USD 80 mark for three consecutive weeks, closing up 1.67% at USD 84.23 per barrel. 

The month-on-month acceleration in the US January PCE price index and the record low year-on-year increase suggest that the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates mid-year. The oil price trend remains influenced by various factors.  

OPEC+’s decision to cut production supports oil prices, but weak global demand expectations and market confidence are somewhat suppressed. With mixed indicators of demand in major consuming countries, market attention is focused on OPEC and OPEC+’s decision on second-quarter supply agreements.  

The decision to extend production cuts is expected to be made in the first week of March, with countries announcing their decisions successively. 

Last Friday, oil prices stabilized around the USD 78 mark and continued to see bullish oscillations, closing higher. In the Asian and European sessions, prices experienced a slight pullback to test support around the USD 78 mark before stabilizing and rising.  

In the afternoon session, there was further rebounding, slowly rising above the USD 79 mark, and continuing the upward momentum.  

During the late US trading session, prices accelerated higher, breaking through the USD 79.9 mark before encountering resistance and settling around USD 79.3, stabilizing and rising again to close higher with consecutive hourly gains. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.8-81.3. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 79.0-78.5. 

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