The surge in safe-haven demand driven by the Middle East conflict has provided support, but the upward momentum of the US dollar is still hindered by the 200-day moving average.  

Gold has reclaimed some lost ground, with investors awaiting further clues regarding the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve.  

As US crude oil inventories decrease and global demand forecasts are revised upward, oil prices have recorded two consecutive gains, approaching the 55-day moving average. 

Gold >>  

On Thursday, gold recovered some lost ground, buoyed by safe-haven demand driven by the Middle East conflict, while the upward momentum of the US dollar remained hindered by the 200-day moving average, providing an opportunity for gold to rebound.  

Investors are awaiting further clues about the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve. Spot gold closed up 0.84%, at USD 2023.04 per ounce. Gold futures rose 0.75%, closing at USD 2021.60 per ounce. 

As the Middle East region takes more military actions, risk sentiment has risen later in the week, supporting an upward movement in gold. Analysts note that the unintentional coordination of geopolitical tensions has helped keep gold within the USD 2000 range.  

Despite the rebound, precious metals remain in a disadvantageous position as investors continue to worry about the Federal Reserve delaying the long-anticipated interest rate cuts. Gold’s technical outlook shows a breakdown, with resistance at the 2026 level during the rebound.  

The European session is weak, and the weakness continues in the US session, breaking below the previous low of 2010 to hit recent lows around the key level of 2000, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2033-2038. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2013-2008. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) jointly predicted strong global oil demand.  

Disruptions in U.S. crude production caused by cold winter weather, coupled with a significant weekly reduction in crude oil inventories according to government reports, contributed to the rise in oil prices.  

WTI crude oil closed up USD 1.52 per barrel, a 2.09% increase, at USD 74.08 per barrel, marking a two-month consecutive trading day increase and reaching resistance near the 55-day moving average. Brent crude oil closed up USD 1.22 per barrel, a 1.6% increase, at USD 79.10 per barrel. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending January 12, exceeding expectations. Excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil inventories were at their lowest since the week of October 27, 2023.  

The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.987 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.26% compared to the same period last year. EIA data also revealed that U.S. crude oil production reached a new high last week at 13.3 million barrels per day. 

On the technical side, oil prices experienced a dip followed by a rebound. The daily chart continued with a doji candle, maintaining stability above the lower range of 70.0-69.20 and showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with the closing price in the middle of the range at the end of the session. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 75.0-76.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 72.0-71.0. 

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