This week features several key economic data releases. The U.S. CPI is scheduled for 20:30 today, the U.S. interest rate decision is at 2:00 AM on Thursday, and the initial jobless claims and retail sales figures will be released at 20:30 in the evening.
These events are expected to create significant market volatility.
Market expectations are generally for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged. According to federal funds futures, traders currently estimate a 23% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday.
The unexpected rate hikes by the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia last week have introduced some uncertainty to the Fed’s outlook.
Some industry experts believe that the Fed may continue to adopt a hawkish stance and hint at another rate hike in July, which could weaken gold prices, especially if the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise together.
The U.S. dollar climbed on Monday but remained within a narrow range of trading. Spot gold was pressured by the strength in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, briefly falling below the USD 1950 level during the session and closing down 0.16% at USD 1957.6 per ounce.
In early trading today, spot gold is holding relatively steady, trading around USD 1960 per ounce. From a technical standpoint, gold is currently oscillating within a range, with resistance at USD 1970 and support at USD 1945.
Breaking out of this range will be necessary for a new market structure to emerge. Traders can consider positions near these two levels for their trading operations.
- Look for shorting opportunities around the 1968-1969 level on upside rebounds, with a stop loss above 1976, and target the 1955-1958 area.
- Consider going long on pullbacks towards the 1951-1952 region, with a stop loss below 1945, and target the 1962-1965 area.
WTI Oil >>
On Monday, oil prices declined by approximately USD 3. There are concerns in the market regarding increased global supply and demand growth. This week, particular attention will be given to key inflation data and the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.
Crude oil opened today at USD 67.198 per barrel. Yesterday, it experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of USD 66.783 per barrel and closing at USD 67.283 per barrel.
The daily chart shows a large bearish candlestick, with the high failing to break the previous high and the low breaking the previous low. This indicates a downward trend, with significant bearish momentum. The outlook for the future remains bearish.
For the future trading of crude oil, the primary strategy is to focus on short positions during rebounds, with long positions as secondary.
- Resistance levels to monitor on the upside are at USD
$68.8 to USD $70.4.
- Support levels to watch on the downside are at USD
$66.4 to USD $66.0.
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