The U.S. PCE data met expectations, and the gold price rebounded was halted last Friday. With the avoidance of a major escalation in the Middle East crisis, some geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and the gold price fell by more than 2% on a weekly basis, marking its worst weekly performance since December.  

The crude oil market experienced a series of complex dynamics last week, with geopolitical tensions and the release of macroeconomic data being the main factors influencing oil prices, resulting in a slight increase in crude oil prices. 

Gold >>  

Last Friday, due to data showing that the U.S. inflation rate met expectations, the rebound in gold prices was halted, and spot gold rose by 0.28% to USD 2339.03 per ounce.  

With the avoidance of a major escalation in the Middle East crisis, some geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and the gold price fell by more than 2% on a weekly basis, marking its worst weekly performance since December. 

The U.S. March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations, which is unlikely to change expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates until September.  

After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell, making gold more attractive, but the U.S. dollar index surged by nearly 0.5%, recovering all of last week’s losses, putting pressure on gold. 

Gold was overall in a recovery mode last week after Monday’s sharp decline. It briefly retreated below the 2300 level, stabilizing around 2291 before rebounding. Throughout Friday, gold prices remained supported above 2320, maintaining a bullish oscillation rebound.  

In the late American session, it accelerated upwards before the market opened, breaking through the 2352 level before retreating under pressure, ending the day with volatile trading. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2350-2355. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2322-2317. 

WTI Crude Oil >>    

Last Friday, the oil market experienced a series of complex dynamics. Geopolitical tensions and the release of macroeconomic data became the main factors influencing oil prices.  

WTI June crude oil futures rose by 28 cents, or 0.34%, to settle at USD 83.85 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rose by 49 cents, or 0.55%, to settle at USD 89.50 a barrel. 

Although geopolitical factors provided support for oil prices, the release of U.S. inflation data dashed hopes for a quick interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby limiting the gains in oil prices. The U.S. PCE annual rate for March recorded 2.7%, in line with economists’ expectations. 

Driven by a surge in exports, a significant decline in U.S. crude oil inventories provided a ray of hope, highlighting strong potential demand. Amid these developments, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to affect market sentiment.  

Escalating conflicts, particularly in the Gaza Strip, raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies. While oil production remained unaffected, traders remained vigilant about the potential impact of continued instability in the region.  

Amidst the dual impact of global economic recovery and geopolitical risks, the oil market experienced a series of fluctuations. Despite some easing of tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices still demonstrated strong resilience. 

Last Friday, oil prices surged before retreating under pressure near the USD 84.50 level, ending the day with volatile trading.  

The daily candlestick pattern closed with a oscillating doji, indicating that the overall rhythm remained in a pattern of two steps forward, one step back, with oscillations between bullish and bearish trends. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 85.0-85.5. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 82.5-82.0. 

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