Last Friday, the month-over-month Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the United States experienced its first negative growth in nearly three years, reinforcing the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March next year.  

This development briefly helped push gold prices to around USD 2070. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions provided support for gold as a safe-haven asset. Last week, oil prices rose by approximately 3%, marking the largest weekly increase in crude oil prices in two months.  

However, the slight decline in oil prices on Friday may be attributed to Angola’s withdrawal from OPEC, which could potentially increase oil production.  

Gold >> 

Last Friday, the month-over-month Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the United States recorded negative growth for the first time in almost three years, reinforcing the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March next year.  

Spot gold closed at USD 2052.96 per ounce, up 0.34%. Gold futures rose by 0.87%, closing at USD 2069.10 per ounce. Due to lower-than-expected inflation data, the US dollar index plummeted to a five-month low, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers.  

The spot gold price briefly surged above USD 2070 per ounce. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions provided support for gold as a safe-haven asset. The recent Federal Reserve policy meeting raised expectations among traders for multiple rate cuts as early as March, putting pressure on the US dollar.  

If the market digests numerous rate cuts and the US dollar and yields decline, gold’s performance is expected to be strong. Last Friday, gold once again made significant gains, breaking through the USD 2070 level before retracing.  

The retracement was substantial, reaching as low as the USD 2050 level, essentially returning to the previous high-to-low reversal position. This retracement essentially erased all the gains from Friday and closed near USD 2053. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2065-2070. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2037-2030. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

Although oil prices experienced a slight decline last Friday, they rose by about 3% over the week, marking the largest weekly gain in two months. WTI crude oil futures prices fell by USD 0.33 per barrel, a decrease of 0.45%, closing at USD 73.56 per barrel.  

Brent crude oil futures prices dropped by $0.32 per barrel, a decrease of 0.4%, closing at USD 79.07 per barrel. The attack on ships in the Red Sea region led to the rerouting of hundreds of vessels, increasing delivery costs and causing a drop in oil prices ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend.  

In addition to the direct disruption of supplies, the rise in shipping and insurance costs is also a significant factor influencing oil prices amid the Red Sea situation. Last Friday, oil prices initially rose and then fell.  

During the Asian and European sessions, prices fluctuated upward, relying on the USD 73.8 per barrel level. In the late U.S. session, there was an accelerated push higher, testing the USD 75 per barrel level twice but facing resistance, resulting in a pullback and oscillation, closing below the previous bottom. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 74.6-75. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 72.0-72.6. 

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