From export bans to price controls, governments in Asia are taking a much more targeted approach than their Western counterparts in curbing global inflationary pressure, a strategy that appears to be working at least for now.
1. Forex Market Insight
Given the uncertainty about the Fed’s rate hike outlook, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) releases later this week could have an impact on the dollar.
In addition, the medium-term outlook for the dollar depends on the Fed’s “reaction mechanism” to inflation developments. The impact of inflation data on the dollar will be “normal” until the Fed makes a “clear” response to inflation.
The PPI and CPI will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Against this background, the Fed’s wandering could cause the euro to fall into a turbulent consolidation pattern.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Today, pay attention to the 1.1535-line. If the euro runs steadily above the 1.1535-line, then pay attention to the suppression of the two positions 1.1583 and 1.1622 in turn. If the strength of the euro drops below the 1.11535-line, it will open up a further downside space. At that time, pay attention to the support of the 1.1501-line.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The pound rose by 0.4% against the dollar on the day, recovering some of its losses after sinking 0.8% last week. The dollar index fell yesterday, after hitting a 15-month high on Friday following the release of strong U.S. jobs data
Investors digested the report, looked ahead to inflation data, and watched comments from Fed officials for clues on interest rate policy. As a result, this led to a slight rebound in the pound yesterday.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
The pound today is mainly focused on the 1.3409-line. If the pound runs above the 1.3409-line, then pay attention to the suppression of the upper 1.3522 and 1.3574 positions in turn. If the pound strength falls below the 1.3409-line, then pay attention to the support of the 1.3302-line.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices rose for the third straight time yesterday to a two-month high, supported mainly by a retreating dollar and high inflation expectations, but strong U.S. stocks limited gains. The debate among Fed officials over interest rate policy also had some impact on gold prices. Intraday focus on the U.S. October PPI data and Fed officials’ speeches.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold is paying attention to the 1831-line today. If the price of gold runs stably below the 1831-line, then pay attention to the support at 1810 and 1800. If the price of gold breaks through the 1831-line, it will open up a further upside space. At that time, pay attention to the suppressive strength of each position at 1844 and 1855.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices rose by nearly 1% yesterday, with positive signs of global economic growth supporting energy demand.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco raised its official selling price of crude oil, boosting oil prices. With this, the intraday oil prices focused on the EIA energy report, which may determine whether the Biden administration released crude oil reserves to suppress oil prices.
On the other hand, anticipate on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, and Fed’s Bullard speech. On Wednesday, 10th November 2021, at 1:00 EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report, and the API crude oil inventory changes will be announced at 5:30.
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Today, oil prices are paying attention to the 78.92-line. If the oil price runs stably above the 78.92-line, then pay attention to the suppression of the 82.83 line. If the oil price falls below the 78.92-line, a further downside space will be opened. At that time, pay attention to the support at the 76.89 and 75.69 positions.
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