1. Forex Market Insight
Recently, the euro short covering has constituted a certain support for the euro.
The weakening of the dollar index under the pressure of multiple negative factors is also an important factor supporting the rebound of the euro.
However, Germany’s weak economic data performance and investor uncertainty about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate hike expectations for the year still somewhat limit the rebound space for the currency.
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
We focus on the 1.0529-line today. If EUR runs steadily below the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0357 and 1.0184. If the strength of EUR breaks above the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0642 and 1.0697.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Given market expectations for a 50bps rate hike in August, the Bank of England (BoE) will have to deliver on that promise to keep the pound at current levels.
This in turn means that the pound will face downside risks if the Bank of England behaves more cautiously in the future.
If the BoE’s rate hike is lower than market expectations, the pound could depreciate more than the market expects.
However, if the BoE does pursue higher interest rates more aggressively, the pound will be better supported.
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2243-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2243-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2106 and 1.2056. If GBP runs above the 1.2243-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2301 and 1.2478.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range, currently trading around $1820/oz.
Gold prices were under pressure overnight after Fed officials pledged to raise interest rates quickly, rebutting fears of a recession, helping the U.S. dollar index rebound to record its highest close in more than a week.
However, U.S. consumer confidence fared worse and U.S. stocks plunged.
Coupled with market concerns about the geopolitical situation, gold prices were also supported by safe-haven buying.
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1832-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1832-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1816 and 1812 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1832-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1847 and 1866.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
U.S. oil rose slightly, hitting a one-and-a-half-week high near $112.49 a barrel.
Threats to global output have added fuel to the spot market, while the G7 agreed to study a price cap for Russian oil,
Supply disruptions in Libya and Ecuador have also become more severe, exacerbating the ongoing tension in the market.
(Crude Oil 1-hour chart)
Oil prices focus on the 109.62-line today. If the oil price runs above the 109.62-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 111.95 and 116.30. If the oil price runs below the 109.62-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 107.52 and 105.01.
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