Gold prices fluctuate as increased oil supply from Iran and Russia dampens market sentiment. The market is eagerly awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech this week, hoping to gain new insights that could potentially shape future interest rate decisions. 

Gold>> 

Gold is experiencing downward pressure as it breaks below the 100-day moving average support at 1942 and oscillates within that range.  

The spot gold price continues to hover within a narrow fluctuation, showing a slight increase of 0.02% to $1950.73 per ounce.  

Market sentiment is focused on Powell’s congressional testimony scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, which is anticipated to undermine confidence among gold bulls. 

 
Gold remains range-bound in the short term, struggling to break out of the current range. Upside potential is seen around $1970 and $1980 per ounce, while downside potential is observed around $1940 and $1932 per ounce.  

The price of gold is currently being suppressed by the moving averages, and it’s important to monitor the breakout of the Bollinger Bands within the range of $1932.30 to $1985.74.  

The lower level of this range is close to the support at the low point on May 30th, while the upper level is near the resistance at the high point on May 18th, making it a significant consolidation range for gold over the past month. 

Today, gold opened with oscillations, rebounded to around $1956, retraced to test support at $1944, and then rebounded again to test resistance near $1954.  

In the U.S. session, there was a sharp decline, testing the support near $1929, and the price rebounded to close around $1936. 

Technical Analysis: 

• Consider short positions around $1965 – $1967 with a stop loss of $5 and target levels around $1942 – $1927. 
• Consider long positions around $1923 – $1925 with a stop loss of $5 and target levels around $1953 – $1977. 

WTI Oil>> 

International oil prices have strengthened as Saudi Arabia prepares to fulfill its previous commitment to production cuts, providing support to oil prices. However, the sluggish demand and potential overestimation of Russian production cuts may limit the upside potential of oil prices. Market analysis suggests that with Saudi Arabia’s production cuts starting in July and a slight improvement in economic activities, crude oil prices are expected to rise and may reach $80 per barrel. Analysts also predict that oil prices will not experience a significant increase due to the anticipated increase in supply from non-OPEC countries by the end of the year, and the expectation that OPEC+ will struggle to comply with production quotas, which has recently led to a decline in oil prices. 

Today, WTI crude oil is trading around $71.05 per barrel. Oil prices experienced a slight retreat in Tuesday’s volatile trading, driven by increased crude oil supplies from Iran and Russia, intensifying bearish sentiment in the market. Tuesday’s closing of a doji candlestick indicates continued consolidation on the daily chart, suggesting a range-bound movement in the short term with no clear directional bias. 

Technical Analysis: 

The focus should be on buying on dips and selling on rebounds. Short-term trading should adopt a range-bound approach, with key levels as reference points, considering the intraday market patterns for trade execution. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around $71.8 – $72.3 per barrel. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around $70 – $69.5 per barrel. 

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