Due to the latest release of US initial jobless claims being stronger than market expectations, the hope for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in bond yields, causing gold prices to decline, briefly falling near the 2020 level.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East region were escalating, resulting in a rise in oil prices by over 3%, reaching a new weekly high.
On Thursday, due to the latest release of US initial jobless claims being stronger than market expectations, the hope for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in bond yields.
Gold prices intraday fell to near the 2020 level, and the rejection of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza attracted buying support at lower levels, stabilizing gold prices. Spot gold closed down 0.04% at USD 2034.28 per ounce; COMEX April gold futures settlement price fell 0.2% to USD 2046.9 per ounce.
Later, market focus may shift to next week’s inflation report to seek further clues about the timing of interest rate cuts. Next Tuesday’s US inflation data will be a key test for Fed rate betting.
If inflation data exceeds expectations, the Fed may be forced to postpone its policy shift, which would impact bullish gold prices, forcing a reevaluation of reasonable levels and likely prompting gold to give back recent gains during this period.
Conversely, if inflation data shows a continued decline in inflation, it will inevitably increase expectations of an early Fed rate cut, which would benefit gold. Gold’s technical outlook continues to fluctuate within a wide range.
Prices during the Asian and European sessions were pressured below the weak level of 2038, oscillating downwards, breaking below the previous day’s low of 2030 in the afternoon and continuing to weaken.
In the late US session, prices accelerated downwards, breaking through the 2020 level, then oscillating back up to retest the 2030 level and entering a sideways pattern.
Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks.
- Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2044-2049.
- Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2020-2015.
WTI Crude Oil >>
On Thursday, concerns in the market escalated as Israel rejected Hamas’s ceasefire proposal, leading to an expansion of conflict in the Middle East. US crude oil futures closed up USD 2.36, or 3.2%, at USD 76.22 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures closed up USD 2.42, or 3%, at USD 81.36 per barrel.
Israeli Prime Minister stated on the 7th that he rejected the request for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The weakening of the US dollar also supported oil prices on Thursday, as it reduced the cost of purchasing oil for traders holding other currencies.
On the demand side, stronger-than-expected declines in US gasoline and distillate inventories also boosted the oil market.
Data from the Energy Information Administration showed distillate inventories falling by 3.2 million barrels to 127.6 million barrels, compared to an expected decline of 1 million barrels.
From a technical perspective, oil prices stabilized around the USD 73.5 level, experiencing strong oscillations to the upside, breaking through highs and closing higher.
During the Asian, European, and American sessions, consecutive rebounds pushed prices above the USD 75 level, with further strength in the late US session driving a powerful rally and accelerating past the USD 76 mark to continue the bullish momentum.
Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks.
- Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 77.5-78.0.
- Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 75.5-75.0.
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