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The Fed’s Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up, Gold and Oil Prices Rise in Tandem 


The economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have strengthened the market’s expectations of interest rate cuts this year, leading to a decline in the US dollar index to a more than one-month low.  

Gold prices continued to rise and briefly hit historic highs. Additionally, oil prices rose due to lower-than-expected increase in US crude inventories and an unexpected increase in Saudi Arabia’s official crude oil selling price to Asia. 

Gold >>  

On Wednesday, economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell strengthened the market’s expectations of interest rate cuts this year. As a result, the US dollar index declined, hitting a more than one-month low.  

Gold prices continued their upward trend, with spot gold hitting another record high, briefly surpassing USD 2152 per ounce, and eventually closing up 0.97% at USD 2148.64 per ounce. COMEX April gold futures also rose by 0.76%, closing at USD 2158.20 per ounce. 

Powell reiterated his stance in the statement, indicating that interest rates may have peaked and could potentially decrease later this year, though not rapidly. If the economy progresses as expected, policy restrictions may begin to loosen this year.  

Powell’s remarks were largely in line with analysts’ expectations, leading to continued gains in the gold market. After experiencing significant gains over the past four days, gold prices broke through recent highs. 

Yesterday, gold prices continued their strong upward trend from a technical perspective. During the Asia-Europe session, there was a slight pullback followed by stabilization around the USD 2023 level, followed by a slight oscillation and ascent.  

During the US session, spurred by positive ADP data, gold prices surged higher, breaking through the USD 2149 level and entering into a period of consolidation. In the early hours, gold prices stabilized around the USD 2132 level before accelerating further, breaking through the USD 2152 level and closing strongly. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

  • Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2160-2170. 
  • Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2130-2120. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that interest rate cuts are still expected this year. Additionally, lower-than-expected increase in US crude inventories and Saudi Arabia’s unexpected increase in official crude oil selling price to Asia boosted market sentiment.  

WTI crude oil ultimately rose by 1.23%, closing at USD 79.22 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.04%, closing at USD 83.62 per barrel.  

API data showed a crude oil inventory increase of 420,000 barrels, but a significant decrease in refined oil inventories, which overall supported oil prices. The extension of production cuts by OPEC+ has had a noticeable stabilizing effect on the oil market.  

Although Russian President stated that the objective of OPEC+ is to stabilize oil market prices rather than raise them, it’s evident from Russia’s 80% year-on-year increase in oil and gas revenue in February that production cuts have benefited OPEC members.  

Furthermore, a statement from Saudi Arabia’s national oil company indicated that the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia in April is set at USD 1.70 per barrel higher than the Dubai average, slightly higher than last month’s USD 1.50 per barrel. 

Yesterday, from a technical perspective, oil prices stabilized around the USD 78 level and experienced strong oscillations towards the upside.  

During the US session, there was consecutive strong upward movement, breaking through and holding above the USD 79 level before continuing to rise towards the USD 80.6 level, where it faced resistance and retraced, leading to a volatile close. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

  • Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.5-81.0. 
  • Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 78.0-77.5. 

Forward-looking Statements    
This article contains “forward-looking statements” and may be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “continue”, “could”, “estimate”, “expect”, “hope”, “intend”, “may”, “might”, “plan”, “potential”, “predict”, “should”, or “will”, or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. However, the absence of such terminology does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. In particular, statements about the expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions, future events, or future performance of Doo Prime will be generally assumed as forward-looking statements.     

Doo Prime has provided these forward-looking statements based on all current information available to Doo Prime and Doo Prime’s current expectations, assumptions, estimates, and projections. While Doo Prime believes these expectations, assumptions, estimations, and projections are reasonable, these forward-looking statements are only predictions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Doo Prime’s control. Such risks and uncertainties may cause results, performance, or achievements materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.     

Doo Prime does not provide any representation or warranty on the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of such statements. Doo Prime is not obliged to provide or release any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements.    

 
Disclaimer    

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, DOO Prime does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. DOO Prime does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly, from the use of this document. The material contained in this document is provided solely for general information and educational purposes and is not and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, securities, futures, options, bonds or any other relevant financial instruments or investments. Nothing in this document should be taken as making any recommendations or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of financial instruments, any related products or any other products, securities or investments. Trading involves risk and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to the report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their own financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision. 

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