The U.S. CPI data came in higher than expected, putting moderate downward pressure on gold prices, which fell below USD 2030 per ounce in the latter part of the trading session. The escalation of Middle East conflicts has driven oil prices up by nearly 1%.  

Gold >>    

On Thursday, spot gold closed up 0.21%, finishing at USD 2028.65 per ounce, while gold futures fell 0.42%, closing at USD 2019.2 per ounce.  

Gold prices faced moderate downward pressure, dipping below USD 2030 per ounce in the latter part of the trading session, reaching a low of USD 2013.09 per ounce, slightly above the critical level of the 55-day moving average at USD 2011.18. 

The fluctuation in gold prices began with the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which exceeded expectations. The overall annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.4%, surpassing the expected 3.2%, with a previous value of 3.1%.  

Meanwhile, both overall monthly inflation and core inflation increased by 0.3%. The marginal rise in inflation data had a minimal impact on the market’s anticipation of a Fed interest rate cut in March. 

On the technical side, gold maintained a high-level, wide-ranging consolidation.  

During the Asian-European session, it stabilized around the 2027 level with slight fluctuations, rose modestly, and then experienced pressure around the 2035 level during the afternoon European session. The price oscillated back to around 2030, entering a narrow-range consolidation.  

In the evening, influenced by the negative CPI data, gold rapidly surged to the 2043 level, but faced resistance, leading to a quick decline. The night session saw a suppression, breaking below the 2020 level, reaching around 2012 before rebounding and closing in a oscillatory manner. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2045-2050. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2023-2018. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

On Thursday, the prospect of an escalation in Middle East tensions, following Iran’s seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, raised concerns in the market, causing a roughly 1% increase in crude oil prices. U.S. crude oil closed up by USD 0.65 per barrel, or 0.91%, at USD 72.02 per barrel.  

Brent crude oil futures rose by USD 0.61 per barrel, or 0.8%, closing at USD 77.41 per barrel. Earlier in the trading day, both benchmarks had risen by over USD 2 per barrel, but retreated after unexpected increases in U.S. inflation and reports of China seeking to reduce imports from Saudi Arabia.  

Global trade declined by 1.3% from November to December 2023 due to military attacks on Red Sea merchant ships. On the technical side, oil prices stabilized around the USD 72 level, experiencing a resurgence in oscillations and rebounds.  

In the late U.S. trading session, prices repeatedly operated around the USD 72.5 level, witnessing an upward acceleration. Ultimately, in the late U.S. session, there was a rapid surge, breaking through the USD 73.8 level, facing resistance, and then experiencing a pullback with oscillations before closing. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 74.4-74.5. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 71.5-71.0. 

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