Pressured by a strong US dollar, spot gold continued its downward trend, and once breached the 2160 level; the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza and the continuation of reduced US drilling platform numbers kept oil prices flat last week. 

Gold >>  

Amid pressure from a strong US dollar, spot gold continued its downward trend and briefly breached the 2160 level, eventually closing down by 0.72%. However, on a weekly basis, it still recorded a 0.44% increase, closing at 2165.48 US dollars per ounce. 

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged last week, but the dot plot suggests three more rate cuts this year, bringing the rates down to around 3.1%.  

The market remains skeptical about this outlook, especially considering that the inflation data for January and February slightly exceeded expectations. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to gradually decline to 2%. 

Last Friday, gold faced technical resistance below 2186, showing weak oscillations and adjustments. Throughout the day, the Asian session opened with a slight push higher, but faced resistance at the 2186 level, leading to continuous downward movement.  

In the afternoon, the decline accelerated further, breaking through the 2170 level and reaching around 2162, where it entered a sideways oscillation. In the late US session, there was a second rebound but faced resistance around the 2180 level, leading to another decline and closing below the previous low. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2175-2180. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2146-2150. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

Due to the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza and the continued reduction in the number of drilling platforms in the United States, oil prices remained flat last week.  

WTI crude oil briefly surged to USD 81 per barrel in the pre-US session but later gave back all gains, ultimately closing down by 0.01% at USD 80.74 per barrel. Brent crude oil also fell by 0.02% to USD 85.52 per barrel. 

The situation in the Gaza Strip and conflicts in Europe have had some impact on oil price movements. Although the changes have been minor, market sentiment has been somewhat volatile as a result.  

Meanwhile, the reduction in the number of drilling rigs in the United States has provided some cushioning to oil prices, temporarily alleviating downward pressure.  

The market is particularly focused on the outcome of talks in the Gaza Strip, as a successfully negotiated ceasefire agreement could inject confidence into the market and potentially push oil prices higher. 

Last Friday, oil prices experienced slight fluctuations during the Asian and European sessions, rising to the USD 81.4 level but facing resistance and oscillating lower. In the late US session, there was a second dip towards the USD 80.5 level, leading to a volatile close. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 82.4-83.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 79.5-80.0. 

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