USD Retreats From 20 Year Highs, U.S. Oil Fluctuates - Doo Prime News
Doo Prime News > Analysis > Market Insight > USD Retreats From 20 Year Highs, U.S. Oil Fluctuates

1. Forex Market Insight    


At the past June monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the start of a gradual but sustained path of interest rate hikes.  

Rates are expected to increase by 25 basis points in July and again in September, 

At the same time, net purchases under the asset purchase program will end on 1st July 2022. 

In the high inflation situation, several central banks around the world have started the pace of monetary tightening. 

The Fed has raised interest rates twice this year, and the market is now more certain that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in June and July. 

However, expectations for a September rate hike are somewhat divided. 

Some analysts suggest that it is likely for the Fed to slowdown in raising interest rates in September. There are also views that the Fed will be difficult to “let go” in the third quarter.  

The July rate hike will be the first ECB rate hike since 2011. Negative interest rates are expected to be withdrawn in the third quarter. 

Technical Analysis:

(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)  

We focus on the 1.0529-line today. If EUR runs steadily below the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0357 and 1.0184. If the strength of EUR breaks above the 1.0529-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0642 and 1.0697.    

GBP Intraday Trend Analysis   

Fundamental Analysis:

The UK government has published draft legislation to rewrite the Northern Ireland agreement, a key part of the post-Brexit trade deal. 

British Prime Minister Johnson insisted that the proposed reforms were “relatively insignificant”. 

Yet, he will wage a new fight over the program in several areas. 

The EU strongly opposes this move, saying that the UK’s unilateral action “undermines mutual trust” and violates international law. 

The move will further put pressure on the pound to the downside. 

Technical Analysis:

(GBP/USD 1-hour chart) 

Execution Insight:   

GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2106-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2106-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2005 and 1.1916. If GBP runs above the 1.2106-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2243 and 1.2301. 

2. Precious Metals Market Insight   


Fundamental Analysis:   

Spot gold oscillated slightly higher and is currently trading around 1817, with low buying and safe-haven buying continuing to provide support to gold prices. 

The dollar’s retreat from nearly 20-year highs has also provided some opportunity for gold prices to rally. 

The U.S. dollar index rose to a 20-year high on rising expectations of Fed rate hikes.

However, the market now has a general consensus on the expectation of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike for the current trading day. 

And the Fed may be laying the groundwork for a further 75 basis point rate hike in July. 

This puts gold prices at risk of falling below the 1800 mark in the short term, and even the possibility of testing support around the May low of 1786.70. 

Technical Analysis:   

(Gold 1-hour chart)   

Trading Strategies:   

Gold pays attention to the 1807-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1807-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1793 and 1783 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1807-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1820 and 1832.                                    

3. Commodities Market Insight   

WTI Crude Oil   

Fundamental Analysis:

U.S. oil fluctuated slightly lower, now at $118.55 per barrel. 

The morning API data showed an unexpected increase of 740,000 barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, and the market is concerned about the U.S. energy tax imposed on oil companies. 

Additionally, the Fed may surprise the market with a higher-than-expected rate hike. 

Technical Analysis:   

(Crude Oil 1-hour chart)   

Trading Strategies:   

Oil prices focus on the 116.30-line today. If the oil price runs above the 116.30-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 120.06 and 127.10. If the oil price runs below the 116.30-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 113.10 and 109.62.   


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