The U.S. employment data falling short of expectations has bolstered expectations of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year, causing the dollar to weaken.  

Additionally, escalating concerns over geopolitical tensions have provided safe-haven support for gold, pushing its price up by nearly 1%. Concerns about reduced supply have also fueled a rebound in oil prices by almost 1% due to Hamas and Israel yet to reach a ceasefire agreement. 

Gold >> 

On Monday, the U.S. employment data falling short of expectations boosted expectations of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year, causing the dollar to weaken.  

Additionally, while Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal, Israel believed that the related conditions did not meet its requirements and continued its attacks on Gaza.  

Escalating concerns over geopolitical tensions also provided safe-haven support for gold, with spot gold briefly rising by over 1% during the session, reaching above USD 2330 per ounce at one point during the U.S. session, ultimately closing up by 0.96% at USD 2323.71 per ounce. 

Following the release of the employment report on Friday, the dollar edged slightly lower on Monday, hovering near its lowest level in about a month.  

Despite the employment data reinforcing expectations of the Fed starting interest rate cuts this year, bulls are becoming more cautious after a significant rebound in April. After the data release, gold quickly retraced its gains.  

This week will see the fewest economic data releases of the year, with the main highlight being the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data released on Friday. Negotiations on the Gaza situation during the week are expected to dominate market sentiment. 

Yesterday, gold saw a strong recovery in technical trading amidst volatile trading. After opening in Asia, it quickly dipped down to around the USD 2291 level before stabilizing and rebounding. In the European session, it surged back above the USD 2310 level, continuing its strong volatile consolidation.  

During the U.S. session, it retested the USD 2314 level twice before stabilizing, and then saw a rapid ascent by the bulls, breaking above the USD 2331 level and closing strongly amidst volatile fluctuations. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2335-2340. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2315-2310. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Monday, concerns over reduced supply heightened as Hamas and Israel had not yet reached a ceasefire agreement, causing WTI crude oil to be capped around USD 79 per barrel, ultimately closing up by 0.87% at USD 78.43 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed up by 0.81% at USD 83.34 per barrel. 

Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to a temporary rise in war risk premiums, there has been no substantial impact on oil supply, and the premiums have now largely subsided.  

However, market expectations of a possible extension of production cuts by OPEC+ in June, the dim hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza, and Saudi Arabia’s increase in official crude oil prices for June to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean regions have provided support for oil prices. 

Yesterday, oil prices continued to trade within a narrow range amid volatile trading, with intraday fluctuations of less than USD 12. Participation was limited, and on the hourly chart, prices repeatedly remained below the USD 80 mark, showing a weak consolidation pattern. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 79.8-80.3. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 77.8-77.3. 

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