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US Markets Closed, Goldman Forecasts Election-Driven Inflation


US Markets Closed, Goldman Forecasts Election-Driven Inflation

US markets were closed on June 19th (Wednesday) for Juneteenth and will resume normal trading on June 20th (Thursday).

Brent crude oil contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ended trading early at 01:30 (GMT+8) on June 20th, and precious metals, US crude oil, and forex contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) concluded trading early at 02:30 (GMT+8).

Last week, US mortgage rates fell below 7% for the first time since March, boosting home financing applications. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped by 8 basis points to 6.94% for the week ending June 14th. The 5-year adjustable mortgage rate fell by 18 basis points to 6.27%, matching the lowest level since February.

Goldman Sachs strategists, led by Daan Struyven, believe that a Republican victory in both the presidential and congressional elections poses the greatest risk to US inflation and bond returns.

US Stocks

U.S. markets were closed on June 19th (Wednesday) for Juneteenth, with normal trading resuming on June 20th (Thursday).

Hong Kong Stock Market

 Fundamental Analysis: 

Hong Kong’s major indices opened higher but closed lower. Technology stocks were down across the board, with Kuaishou falling over 4%, Bilibili over 3%, and NetEase and JD.com over 1%.

Food stocks, including restaurants, beer, and dairy, led declines, with Haidilao falling over 5% and China Resources Beer over 3%. Semiconductor stocks outperformed, with SMIC rising over 4%.

Shipping stocks were active, with Pacific Basin Shipping up nearly 6%. Oil stocks continued to rise, with the three major oil companies each gaining over 2%, along with other high-dividend stocks showing significant increases.

Technical Analysis:  

US Markets Closed, Goldman Forecasts Election-Driven Inflation

(Hang Seng Index, 1-day chart) 

Market Trends: 

  • Hang Seng Index fell 0.3%, closing at 18,374.38 points.
  • Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.09%, closing at 3,790.47 points.
  • Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.27%, closing at 6,570.22 points.

FTSE China A50 Index

Fundamental Analysis: 

China’s A-shares fell in the morning session, with the semiconductor sector rising against the trend, while real estate and PEEK materials weakened.

Chip stocks rallied, with Jinghua Micro, Qipai Technology, Dongjing Electronics, and Zhongjing Technology hitting the daily limit.

Newly listed stocks on the STAR Market surged again, with Kaiwei Technology hitting the daily limit for the fourth time in six days, and Yifei Laser also hitting the daily limit.

The vehicle-to-everything (V2X) sector saw mixed performance, with Huaming Intelligence hitting the daily limit for the fourth consecutive time, and Hongquan Internet, Tianmai Technology, and Aoni Electronics also hitting the daily limit.

Technical Analysis:  

US Markets Closed, Goldman Forecasts Election-Driven Inflation

(SSE Composite Index, 1-day chart) 

Market Trends: 

  • Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.27%, closing at 3,009.76 points.
  • Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.17%, closing at 9,111.02 points.
  • ChiNext Index fell 0.96%, closing at 1,771.31 points.

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