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WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) – Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board, sees a clear conclusion in the sharp decline of the U.S. business group’s Leading Economic Index: If recession isn’t already taking hold in the United States, then it will soon.

Tell that to Matt Malone, the chief executive officer of Groundworks, and the response is anything but recessionary – with his residential foundation and water management company still booking strong sales, pressing to fill several hundred open jobs, and seeing consumers ready to spend.

Full coverage: REUTERS

Oil Lower On Firm Dollar, Market Shrugs Off Russian Supply Cuts

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Feb 27 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell in volatile trade on Monday, as a stronger dollar and fears of recession risks offset gains arising from Russia’s plans to deepen oil supply cuts.

West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded at $75.98 a barrel, 34 cents, or 0.5% lower, while Brent crude futures were down 48 cents, or 0.6%, at $82.68 a barrel at 0733 GMT.

Both benchmarks closed more than 90 cents higher on Friday.

Full coverage: REUTERS

Dollar Hovers Near Seven-Week High As U.S. Rate Expectations Rise

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SINGAPORE/LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) – The dollar wavered near a seven-week high on Monday, as investors took stock of last week’s strong economic data and rapid reconsideration of where interest rates will peak.

Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending rebounded sharply in January, while inflation accelerated.

Traders now expect the Fed to raise interest rates to around 5.4% by the summer, according to pricing in futures markers . At the beginning of February, they envisaged rates rising to a peak of just 4.9%.

Full coverage: REUTERS

Incoming BOJ Head Says He Has Ideas On Exit From Ultra-Easy Policy

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TOKYO, Feb 27 (Reuters) – Incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday he had ideas on how the central bank could exit its massive stimulus, but a shift to tighter policy would only come when the country’s trend inflation heightens significantly.

The central bank will reduce its bond buying and likely head toward policy normalisation when sustained achievement of its 2% inflation target comes into sight, Ueda said.

Full coverage: REUTERS

Morning Bid: It’s All About Inflation

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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga.

Markets are back to inflation watching. Just as global economic growth worries ease and labour markets remain tight, price trends have become the main focus for investors.

A slew of strong U.S. economic data has reinforced the view that interest rates will stay higher-for-longer.

The latest evidence came in the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, which shot up 0.6% last month after gaining 0.2% in December.

Full coverage: REUTERS