
Gold
On Monday, supported by safe-haven buying, gold surged to a record high of $2,740.44 per ounce but later gave up all intraday gains as the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened. By the close, gold had slipped 0.1%, settling at $2,719.43 per ounce.
Uncertainty surrounding both the US election and the Middle East conflict has driven gold’s upward momentum. On Monday, Israel launched several strikes on southern Beirut, including one near the Rafic Hariri University Hospital. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his 11th visit to the region since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, seeking a ceasefire in the ongoing Gaza war.
However, the rising dollar and US Treasury yields curbed gold’s rally. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 12-week high on Monday as investors speculated that the US economy would remain strong, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a less dovish stance. The dollar also benefited from higher yields, rising 0.5% to 103.98, touching 104 for the first time since August 1.
Several Federal Reserve officials expressed support for slowing the pace of interest rate cuts. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid advocated for a cautious approach, citing uncertainty over how low rates should go. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also indicated their preference for smaller rate cuts going forward.
Today, investors will focus on geopolitical developments, the Richmond Fed’s October Manufacturing Index, and further speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Gold opened at $2,720.20 per ounce, surged past last week’s high, and climbed to a record high of $2,740.7. However, technical resistance and profit-taking triggered a retreat, with gold touching a low of $2,713.9 before closing at $2,719.43. The day ended with a long upper shadow, indicating a period of consolidation within the broader uptrend.

Today’s Focus:
- Trading strategy: focus on shorting at higher levels, buying at lower levels.
- Resistance: $2,727–$2,740
- Support: $2,710–$2,700
Oil
On Monday, oil prices rebounded as concerns over crude demand eased amid escalating Middle East conflict. WTI crude for November delivery rose $1.34, or 1.93%, to settle at $70.56 per barrel. Brent crude for December delivery gained 1.7%, closing at $74.29 per barrel.
Last week, WTI dropped around 8%, while Brent crude lost over 7%, marking their steepest weekly declines since September 2.
Tensions in the Middle East provided support for this week’s oil rally. Israeli forces intensified their strikes on Gaza, targeting hospitals and shelters in northern Gaza, while also conducting precision strikes on Hezbollah’s financial facilities in Lebanon. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading back to the Middle East to push for ceasefire negotiations.
TP ICAP energy analyst Scott Shelton noted that the situation in the Middle East remains unclear, suggesting oil prices may continue to carry a risk premium.
Additionally, China’s move to cut its benchmark lending rates on Monday, lowering both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates by 25 basis points, boosted market sentiment. Saudi Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, remained “quite optimistic” about China’s oil demand.
Today, investors will be closely watching US API crude inventory data for the week ending October 18, geopolitical developments, and further comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Oil opened at $69.31 per barrel, retreated briefly before rallying, hitting a daily high of $70.89 per barrel before settling at $70.31. The day ended with a moderate bullish candle. Short-term price action remains within a broad descending channel. The focus today will be on the channel’s upper resistance, with expectations for a rally followed by a potential pullback.

Today’s Focus:
- Consider building positions near resistance levels.
- Resistance: $70.7–$72.0
- Support: $68.9–$68.3
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Disclaimer
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